By Giulia Petroni and Joe Stonor

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week of Feb. 17-20 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: U.S. investors are returning from the long holiday weekend, and this week's calendar is packed with key fundamental and macro data releases that could influence markets--including NOPA crush figures, the USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday, Fed meeting minutes, U.S. GDP data and the Fed-favored PCE inflation gauge.

Meanwhile, seasonal patterns for mid-February tend to be bullish, particularly for the soybean and other soft commodities like grains, according to analysts at Peak Trading Research.

South American weather remains largely nonthreatening. Northern and central Brazil should see near- to above-normal rainfall, while in Southern Brazil further dry spells expected next week could threaten crop prospects, the analysts said. In Argentina, forecasts call for average to above-average rainfall, but crops remain vulnerable if precipitation totals fall short. Overall, late-season dryness in both Southern Brazil and Argentina are the key variables to monitor.

At the USDA Outlook Forum on Thursday, the department will release its first 2026-27 U.S. balance sheets--model-based estimates rather than survey data. With trade policy and demand assumptions having shifted meaningfully since the last baseline supply and demand tables, these initial figures will be closely watched, as markets will use them to frame expectations ahead of the March Prospective Plantings report, analysts at Peak Trading said.

Chicago wheat futures fell 2.1% to $5.37 a bushel in European afternoon trading Tuesday, while corn was down 0.9% to $4.28 a bushel. Soybean prices rose 0.3% to $11.37 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES: Cocoa prices steadied Tuesday after hitting their lowest level since October 2023, with New York futures nudging up 0.6% to $3,492 a ton. The price is down steeply so far this year from levels above $6,000 in January, with the commodity's selloff accelerating in the last week.

The sharp fall is down to higher crop estimates encouraged by favorable rains in West Africa, continuing a theme that has seen cocoa fall 70% from record highs in late 2024, analysts at ING said. "At the same time, warehouses and ports in the Ivory Coast remain congested with unsold beans after exporters refused to pay elevated domestic farm-gate prices that exceeded international market levels," they said.

Ghana has responded to the price spiral by moving to cut the price it pays farmers for cocoa, and linking those prices to international rates going forward, analysts at Commerzbank note. The move will pressure Ivory Coast to follow suit, they said.

Coffee futures fell sharply too, with ICE futures down 5.2% to trade at $2.83 a pound. Sugar futures nudged up 0.3% to 12.53 cents a pound.

Write to Giulia Petroni at giulia.petroni@wsj.com and josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 17, 2026 12:45 ET (17:45 GMT)

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