Al Root

Ahead of a SpaceX IPO, NASA is showing the way things used to be done in space. It's a model that won't likely survive in the suddenly hot commercial space business.

On Thursday, NASA was conducting its " Wet Dress Rehearsal" for the Artemis II mission that will take four astronauts on a 10-day, million-plus-mile journey around the far side of the moon. It will be the first lunar flyby in some 50 years.

The astronauts will be launched aboard an Orion spacecraft, in early March or early April, made by Lockheed Martin and other partners, propelled by the huge Space Launch System, or SLS, managed by NASA and built by several partners, including Boeing.

SLS isn't reusable, like a SpaceX Falcon 9, and it's expensive, costing an estimated $24 billion. That doesn't include the cost of the capsule or other infrastructure. SpaceX, for comparison, has raised an estimated $12 billion over its entire history, developing its reusable rockets.

Reusability has helped push down the cost of putting cargo into low-Earth-orbit by at least 95% compared with the NASA space shuttle.

Lower costs have enabled SpaceX to build a profitable space-based broadband business called Starlink. It is also a big reason SpaceX CEO Elon Musk thinks he can put AI data centers in space.

Raising cash for the data center opportunity is a big reason SpaceX is pursuing a 2026 IPO. SpaceX, valued at $1.25 trillion in private markets, might seek a $1.5 trillion IPO valuation while raising record amounts of cash.

Lower costs are also why the SLS system is likely to be the last rocket system designed by NASA. It's far more likely that the agency will contract with commercial providers such as SpaceX to provide launch and crew services.

That process has already started. NASA uses commercial companies to take a payload to the moon. SpaceX, of course, ferries astronauts to and from the International Space Station.

Lower costs are driving the commercial space market, with new opportunities in communications and defense. Northrop Grumman CEO Kahty Warden said on Wednesday that her company has seen "expansive growth" in space. Northrop makes communications, missiles, and intelligence assets that operate above the atmosphere.

SpaceX's success has accelerated space activity in recent years, which is a good thing, even if it makes the SLS system look antiquated.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

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February 19, 2026 12:32 ET (17:32 GMT)

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