Al Root

Rocket Lab reports fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday. There will be a lot to talk about.

For the quarter, Wall Street is looking for a loss of 10 cents a share and revenue of $177 million. A year ago, Rocket Lab reported a 10-cent loss from sales of $132 million.

The company will also likely provide first-quarter 2026 guidance. Currently, Wall Street projects sales of $184 million, up from $123 million a year ago.

Along with earnings and guidance, investors will pay attention to the business backlog. The company ended the third quarter with a backlog of about $1.1 billion.

It has continued to sign new business. Most recently, Rocket Lab won a Space Force-related contract, "which is a firm fixed-priced...agreement, with a total potential value of $805 million," wrote Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard in a preview report.

Investors will also want an update on Neutron, Rocket Lab's larger launch vehicle that could have its first flight in mid-2026. The rocket will allow the company to do more business. Rocket Lab's Electron rocket can carry about 320 kilograms to space, while Neutron will carry closer to 13,000 kilograms to low-Earth orbit.

A SpaceX Falcon 9 can carry about 23,000 kilograms to low-Earth orbit.

Rocket Lab stock was up 2.2% in midday trading at $71.77, while the S&P 500 was down 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.2%.

Over the past 12 months, Rocket Lab shares have ranged from $14.72 to $99.58. The volatility has been incredible. Gains have been solid, though. Through midday trading, Rocket Lab stock was up 238% over the past year.

Gains have been catalyzed by Rocket Lab's own growth. Sales are expected to be up about 38% from a year ago. Investors have become more excited about space, thanks mainly to SpaceX. Elon Musk's rocket company, currently valued at almost $1.3 trillion, is planning a mid-year initial public offering. The capital will help SpaceX put AI data centers in space.

If the AI arms race reaches orbit, any company that can reliably put things in space, such as Rocket Lab, will benefit.

Write to Al Root at allen.root@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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February 26, 2026 12:33 ET (17:33 GMT)

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