Feb 26 (Reuters) - Novavax raised its adjusted revenue forecast for 2026 on Thursday, as it expects milestone payments from vaccine supply and licensing deals to offset pressure from sagging demand.

Shares of Novavax rose nearly 19% after earnings beat.

The company also swung to a fourth-quarter profit from a year-earlier loss as cost cuts and licensing deals helped cushion the blow from restrictive U.S. recommendations for COVID-19 shots.

The biotech now expects 2026 adjusted revenue of $230 million to $270 million, up from its prior forecast of $185 million to $205 million. Those numbers exclude sales and royalties from its partnership with Sanofi.

The sharp shift in U.S. vaccine policy under the Trump administration has contributed to falling vaccination rates, while reshaping the regulatory landscape for new shots.

"We probably disagree as a scientific community and an industry with some of their positions," Novavax CEO John Jacobs told Reuters, adding that they "do see a pathway forward".

Earlier this month, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration initially refused to review rival Moderna's mRNA-based flu vaccine, then reversed course a week later after the company amended its application.

"It was good to see them (Moderna) have a regulatory path forward for their flu vaccine," Jacobs said.

Novavax expects to reach profitability by 2028, backed by key launches from its deal with Sanofi, including a COVID-flu combination vaccine that uses its Nuvaxovid shot.

Last month, Novavax licensed its Matrix-M adjuvant, which improves the body's response to vaccines, to Pfizer for up to $530 million.

"We have more interest than I've ever seen in three years in our tech and some great conversations going on," Jacobs said.

Novavax's fourth-quarter revenue rose 67% to $147 million, topping analysts' average estimates of $78.84 million, according to data compiled by LSEG.

Net income for the quarter was $18 million, compared with a net loss of $81 million a year earlier.