AdaptHealth (AHCO) shares sold off about 14% on Tuesday after "softer-than-expected" Q4 results and a "steeper perceived ramp" to its 2026 outlook, reflecting the company's new capitated contract, RBC Capital Markets said in a note emailed Wednesday.

While the investment needed for the capitated arrangement may weigh on AdaptHealth's early year guidance, the company's management is "taking appropriate early measures to de-risk the implementation," the note said.

RBC said it is "optimistic" on the "long-term value of the new capitated contract and potential for new similar value-based care arrangements as payors see value in [AdaptHealth's] national scale and strong clinical outcomes."

Also, AdaptHealth is preparing infrastructure for the new capitated contract, including adding new employees, buying vehicles, and acquiring equipment, which "derisks contract implementation," the note said.

The investment firm noted the company's 2026 outlook forecasts organic revenue growth of 7.5% to 9.5%, up from 6% to 8% growth previously, which includes 5% to 6% growth from the new capitated contract.

RBC reiterated AdaptHealth's outperform rating and $13 price target.

Price: 9.03, Change: +0.17, Percent Change: +1.98