By Ronnie Harui

Asian government bonds sold off Tuesday as the Middle East conflict stoked fears of rising inflation driven by higher oil prices, which could lead to a faster pace of interest-rate increases by central banks across the region.

Yields on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose 5 basis points to 2.110% on Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, yields on 10-year Australian sovereign securities climbed 10 basis points to 4.7340%, while those on 10-year New Zealand government debt rose 6 basis points to 4.4060%. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

President Trump said Monday that the U.S. military operation against the Iranian regime could last four to five more weeks. Secretary of State Marco Rubio later said that Iran planned to attack the U.S. following opening strikes by Israel on Iran, requiring the U.S. to protect American forces in the region from an "imminent threat."

The main theme has shifted toward a geopolitically driven inflation shock, Commerzbank Research analysts said in a note. "Markets are transitioning from a traditional risk-off response to the Middle East conflict toward a stagflationary scenario, where rising energy prices outweigh safe-haven demand for bonds," the analysts said.

Brent crude oil has surged after the effective halt to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, following Iranian threats to attack vessels attempting passage, the Commerzbank analysts said. "Around 20% of global oil supply normally transits through this waterway, and tanker traffic has fallen sharply with vessels anchoring outside the strait amid security concerns," they added.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures rose 1.3% to $78.77 a barrel in early Tuesday trade after closing 6.7% higher on Monday. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 0.9% to $71.86 a barrel.

Write to Ronnie Harui at ronnie.harui@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 02, 2026 20:19 ET (01:19 GMT)

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