BUZZ-Deepening Mid East ties intensifying economic risks for India, BofA warns

Reuters
03/02
BUZZ-Deepening Mid East ties intensifying economic risks for India, BofA warns

** India's deepening linkages to Middle East over past decade heighten economic risks as regional conflict intensifies, BofA Securities says

** UAE India's second-largest export destination, major hub for Indian workers; Saudi Arabia key worker destination

** Around 9.7 million Indians live, work in Middle East; UAE hosts largest overseas Indian population at ~4 million, per external affairs ministry

** At least 35% of India's inward remittances from region; BofA estimates exposure at $45 billion-$55 billion

** BofA says Middle East supplies ~45% of India's energy imports, amplifying vulnerability to oil and gas shocks

** India runs non-energy trade of ~$60 billion; heavy exposure to gems and jewellery, food, chemicals

** BofA estimates $10/bbl rise in energy prices; adds $12 billion–$15 billion/year to current account balance impact; lifts headline inflation by 25-30 bps

** Indian shares down, rupee depreciates, bond yields rise

(Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru)

((bharath.rajeswaran@thomsonreuters.com; +91 9769003463;))

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