蔚來、理想、特斯拉共同預警，汽車行業缺芯潮又要來了

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03/04

本文來自微信公衆號：AutoReport 汽車產經，編輯：甘猛，作者：於雷，原文標題：《蔚來、理想、特斯拉共同預警汽車行業缺芯潮又要來了！》蔚來創始人、董事長、CEO李斌在1月做出判斷，內存漲價已成為今年最大的成本壓力，這是關乎全行業的大事。儘管他表示，目前內存漲價的成本壓力還沒有傳導到終端售價，也在蔚來的承受範圍內。但這種穩定比較脆弱，因為就目前的局勢來看，存儲芯片的緊缺預計會持續相當長的...

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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b\">AutoReport</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0708995401.HKD","symbol_name":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b","article_id":"2616646539","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260304182825a6a1c670&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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汽車行業缺芯潮又要來了！》蔚來創始人、董事長、CEO李斌在1月做出判斷，內存漲價已成為今年最大的成本壓力，這是關乎全行業的大事。儘管他表示，目前內存漲價的成本壓力還沒有傳導到終端售價，也在蔚來的承受範圍內。但這種穩定比較脆弱，因為就目前的局勢來看，存儲芯片的緊缺預計會持續相當長的一段時間。理想汽車供應鏈副總裁孟慶鵬預測，2026年汽車行業存儲芯片的供應滿足率可能不足50%。馬斯克也在今年1月底表示，即使考慮所有主流存儲芯片供應商，也難以滿足特斯拉的需求。供應緊缺加劇，汽車智能化又在拉高單車內存需求，使得車企也不得不另尋他路解決芯片短缺問題。比如，過去車企採購的是集成好的智能座艙、智能駕駛域控制器，內存作為模塊組件嵌入其中。車企不接觸內存製造商，僅驗收系統功能。但在芯片荒下，有車企開始跳過Tier1，與內存製造商簽署長期供應合同。據報道，近期大眾和三星、SK海力士簽訂了直供協議，現代和三星簽訂了供貨協議，理想、極氪與美光簽訂了選型認證和芯片直供協議。特斯拉還要更加激進，在2025Q4電話會上，馬斯克宣佈今年將投資200億美元新建6座工廠，其中一座就是Terafab晶圓廠。「為了消除未來三四年可能出現的供應瓶頸，我們必須建設一座Terafab晶圓廠。這是集邏輯芯片、內存和封裝於一體的大型晶圓廠，且將設在美國本土。這對於我們應對地緣政治風險也至關重要。」馬斯克表示。NO.1[缺芯的不只有車企]芯片荒六年前就已經出現過一次，但這次的情況和當初還有點不太一樣。2020年初，受疫情影響，車企普遍不看好當年的銷售情況，有些主動削減或終止了芯片的採購訂單。芯片製造商在這期間，順勢就將空餘產能分配給手機、電腦等領域的消費電子芯片，應對居家上課辦公帶來的需求量上漲。然而，下半年汽車市場意外快速反彈時，留給車規級芯片的產能已經無法支撐市場需求。其餘產線又因為切換周期長、消費電子芯片利潤更高等原因，沒有及時調整。結果就是，大眾、福特、豐田等在2020年上半年削減過芯片訂單的車企，普遍都因為缺芯被迫暫時關停了部分產能。可以説上次缺芯更多是因為車企對於市場需求的誤判造成的，而這次則主要是由於AI大模型爆發式發展帶來了海量芯片需求，擠壓了汽車、手機等傳統行業的存儲芯片供應。春節期間，豆包、元寶、千問、文心...幾家國產大模型應用豪擲80億元紅包，打響了AI入口爭奪戰。據不完全統計，豆包在除夕當天互動19億次、元寶月活躍用户達1.14億、千問活動首日DAU增長727.7%，有超過400萬60歲以上用户首次使用AI點單‌。隨着一輪輪互動的擴散，AI也刷屏成為全民熱搜。但這場狂歡的另一面是海量的數據和算力消耗，大模型參數從百億躍升到萬億，訓練和推理都需要海量數據並行處理，各家公司不得不提前數月擴建算力集羣。擴建過程中，存儲芯片中的DRAM（運行內存）又成了缺口最嚴重的地方。因為GPU需要極高帶寬來餵飽數據，一旦帶寬跟不上計算速度，就會造成算力空轉，訓練與推理延遲大幅飆升。此外，AI數據中心服務器還需要更大的內存容量。大語言模型一次長對話就可能佔用幾十GB內存，訓練時還需存儲激活值、梯度與優化器狀態，內存需求往往是模型參數的幾倍到十幾倍。「存儲行業已全面進入賣方市場，我們的DRAM和NAND閃存庫存已降至極低水平，大約僅夠4周使用，今年無法完全滿足任何客户的需求。」全球存儲芯片三巨頭之一SK海力士，在前不久的高盛電話會上表態。谷歌、微軟、Meta、OpenAI等公司為了搶到產能，總部負責採購的高管都長期租住在韓國，只為爭搶所剩無幾的DRAM產能。在競爭方式上，融資能力強、現金儲備雄厚的AI公司往往也更有優勢，他們可以給出更高的報價、更長的長期合同，甚至提前預付鎖定2026-2027年供應。這種背景下，不説利潤單薄的車企，就連消費電子行業也自然難以與之競爭。「三星DS部門（半導體部門）原本想將蘋果iPhone使用的LPDDR5X內存價格提高約60%，然而談判開始時，先試探性的提出漲價100%，蘋果立即接受了。」韓國媒體Dealsite爆料稱。更要命的是，芯片製造商不但是把現有產能了優先分配給AI公司，還把很多舊產線，改造成AI數據中心所需的HBM（高帶寬內存）或先進DDR5（高速通用內存）產線，導致當前主流的車規級DDR4芯片產能進一步減少。但面對這種突然的短缺，車企短時間很難做出靈活的轉變。因為，芯片集成後需要進行長達1-2年的系統級安全認證，即使可以替換，也不能立刻量產，結果可能就是只能在市場上瘋狂掃貨。高盛集團亞洲團隊的調查數據指出，DDR4今年1月的現貨價上漲172%，而DDR5僅76%。這表明，很多買家正在試圖搶購任何能夠買到的成熟製成芯片。NO.2[芯片荒預計2028年緩解]AI數據中心的擠壓下，2026年，對於車企來説註定是非常艱難的一年。三大存儲芯片供應商中，SK海力士、美光都已明確表示今年的HBM芯片產能已經全部售罄，三星HBM4預定量也超過了計劃產能。HBM每GB容量消耗的晶圓是DDR5的3倍，每投入1片晶圓生產HBM，就相當於少產出3倍同等容量的DDR5。美光首席商務官Sumit Sadana承認：「隨着HBM供應量的增加，由於這種三比一的比例關係，留給非HBM市場的內存供應量就會減少。」SK海力士正在龍仁半導體集羣建設一期晶圓廠，該項目規模相當於其清州M15X晶圓廠的6倍產能緊張，三大供應商規劃中的新產線至少還要再等近一年才能投產，這也成為了新玩家成長的契機。作為國內最大的DRAM廠商，長鑫存儲的LPDDR5芯片已經完成了車規級認證，並適配特斯拉、比亞迪等車規級客户。其招股書顯示，LPDDR5芯片（包括消費級）去年底在全球市場達到約9%份額。由於需求旺盛，長鑫存儲在合肥、北京的兩處工廠已處於滿負荷運轉狀態，目前正在上海擴建新廠。該工廠將生產面向服務器、計算機、汽車電子及其他電子產品的DRAM，設備安裝計劃於2026年下半年啓動，2027年正式投產。可以從規劃看到，儘管AI計算中心的內存芯片盈利更高，但新廠依舊涵蓋了車規級芯片的生產。這是因為車規級芯片作為現金牛業務，不但出貨量穩定，採購周期還更長，只要鎖定供應鏈，一般就會有10-15年的長期供應承諾。事實上，即使產能明顯向AI計算中心傾斜的三星、SK海力士和美光，也沒有想與車企做切割。畢竟，他們親身經歷過疫情後消費電子芯片需求激增，2022年迅速飽和後，出貨量大幅下降，價格應聲跳水的反噬。所以在這一輪需要上漲中，他們也在防範這類風險。一方面，通過與AI公司簽署長期合約鎖定產能，避免重蹈2022覆轍，另一方面也在維繫汽車客户。比如，SK海力士原計劃在今年上半年停止DDR4出貨，但最後保留了部分產能，以支持汽車和工業客户；美光也明確DDR4會在今年一季度後停產，但會繼續為長期汽車客户提供少量供應。長遠來看，汽車市場還有着更大的潛力。隨着自動駕駛和智能座艙的發展，車載數據量正在呈指數級增長。早期ACC/LCC功能，通常僅需1-2GB的運行內存。然而到了智能駕駛階段，前些年流行的雙Orin-X方案就已經達到32GB，需求發生了質的飛躍。除了容量的激增，智能駕駛對內存帶寬和響應速度也有着更高要求。為了確保在高速行駛中系統不卡頓、無延遲，智能駕駛採用的都是最新的LPDDR5/5X芯片。這種容量和規格的雙重升級，也意味着更大的市場潛力。智能座艙上，近兩年流行的本地語音大模型交互、本地運行3A遊戲，也需要至少8-12GB的運行內存。為此，蔚來、小鵬甚至都直接採用智駕芯片驅動座艙系統。目前，城市NOA、本地座艙大模型的普及率還相對有限，存儲芯片廠商也看好未來的需求，不願意徹底中斷汽車業務。至於芯片荒會持續到什麼時間，隨着三大內存廠商擴建產能在2027-2028年的集中釋放，問題或許就會得到緩解。在社交平台X上，有一個叫BullsLab的用户疑似泄露了一份SK海力士的內部文件，上面顯示DRAM缺貨將持續至2028年，同樣契合這一時間節點。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}