MW These stocks are set for high-stakes earnings moves. Here's your trading playbook.

By Lawrence G. McMillan

S&P 500 remains stuck in a range - despite the bears' best efforts to swipe it down

Tech giant Oracle's latest earnings report will be closely watched.

The number of companies reporting earnings is decreasing, but several upcoming announcements are sure to command investors' attention - especially tech giant Oracle $(ORCL)$.

Traders will recall that Oracle's earnings report last September created a massive updraft of more than 100 points in the stock - which it quickly gave back and then some.

Currently, the March 13 at-the-money straddle is priced at about 12% of Oracle's stock price. That's a bit expensive. Note the ORCL entry in the table below, where the "count" shows 11.74%. Six of the past 10 earnings moves for ORCL have been 11.74% or greater. So we'd like to be able to buy the straddle for that price just before earnings are announced - that is, buy late in the trading day on March 10.

Another stock of interest in the following table is Ulta Beauty $(ULTA)$. This stock often moves more than its straddle price, postearnings. So, if you can buy the at-the-money March 13 straddle, just before the earnings (i.e., late in the day on Thursday, March 12), it has a good chance of being a winning trade.

One more item of note: The past two quarters, Kohl's $(KSS)$ has seen post-earnings moves, respectively, of +42.6% and +24.1%. Those were far in excess of the straddle price.

The table below shows some of the major stocks that are reporting earnings over the coming week. This list comprises stocks that have increased implied volatility. That is, the option market is expecting a potentially volatile move after the earnings news.

Our approach is to buy the shortest-term straddle possible (generally the one expiring on the Friday after the earnings reporting date) and exit at the close of the first full day of trading after the earnings have been reported. For the stocks in this table, that would mean buying the straddles expiring on March 13.

Specifically, the columns in the table (from left to right) are:

Date: the earnings reporting date,

Pm?: whether the earnings are to be reported before the market opens ("N") or after the market closes ("Y");

Symbol: the stock symbol;

Needed: the most that we would pay for that near-term straddle, with the price of the straddle expressed as a percentage of the underlying stock price. In reality, this is the percentage move that is smaller than six of the past 10 post-earnings moves in this stock; and

Optvol: the 20-day average of total option volume on this stock. Low numbers here indicate a potentially illiquid situation.

   Date       pm?  Symbol   Needed  Optvol 
   3/10/2026  N    KSS      8.56%   9,590 
   3/10/2026  Y    AVAV     10.15%  5,331 
   3/10/2026  Y    ORCL     11.74%  262,258 
   3/11/2026  Y    PATH     6.87%   57,482 
   3/12/2026  N    DG       6.81%   451 
   3/12/2026  Y    ADBE     6.34%   42,174 
   3/12/2026  Y    RBRK     1.49%   4,383 
   3/12/2026  Y    S        11.59%  14,906 
   3/12/2026  Y    ULTA     7.14%   1,738 

New recommendation: CarMax $(KMX)$

There is a new put-call ratio sell signal in CarMax (KMX). However, the stock has support in the $41 area, so we are not going to take a bearish position unless KMX breaks below that support level. The chart shows a put-call ratio sell signal from a similar level about a year ago, which was eventually profitable. There have also been a couple of put-call ratio buy signals in KMX over the past year. These signals come when speculation is at an extreme. Currently, there is a lot of call buying in this stock, which forced the ratio lower, but it is beginning to rise. If the stock breaks support, we will make the following trade.

If KMX closes below 41, then buy 2 KMX (April 17) 42.5 puts in line with the market.

If this position is taken, then we will hold as long as the weighted put-call ratio for KMX remains on a sell signal.

Stock market insight: Bears fumble again

The S&P 500 Index SPX has returned to the center of its trading range. A close below 6,720 or above 7,000 would break that. I'm still using 6,720 on the downside, because that is the December low.

Equity-only put-call ratios continue to rise and are getting into oversold territory. They won't generate buy signals until they peak and begin to decline.

Market breadth has been positive enough to stave off the "stocks only" oscillator sell signal. So, the two breadth oscillators are still not currently in agreement and so not particularly useful as indicators right now.

New highs on the NYSE continue outnumber new lows, so this indicator remains bullish.

During the market turmoil on March 3, the VIX VIX rose to just above 28, but plunged as stock prices recovered. This generated a new "spike peak" buy signal. VIX continued to decline, solidifying the new "spike peak" buy signal, but also leaves the trend of a VIX sell signal in place. Those signals are for the stock market, not the direction of VIX.

The construct of volatility derivatives continues to show some signs of worry. March and April VIX futures are trading with a small inversion and the term structures are rather flat. Those are not all-out bearish signs, but they are definitely indications that traders are still showing some concern through the volatility-based products.

As long as SPX remains within its trading range, the individual indicators are going to have a hard time making money. The fact that put-call ratios are trending higher, along with VIX, shows that there is some fear in this market. So far, that fear has been able to manifest itself in a significant decline. We continue to await a breakout for a momentum trade.

New recommendation: VIX 'spike peak' buy signal

When the market dropped sharply on March 3, VIX roared up to 28. But by the end of the day, stock prices had recovered and VIX had fallen. In fact, VIX generated a new "spike peak" buy signal for the stock market. These signals last for a maximum of 22 trading days - about a month - so buy S&P 500 options with an expiration date just over a month from now.

Buy 1 SPY SPY (April 10) at-the-money call and sell 1 SPY (April 10) call with a striking price 20 points higher

The position would be stopped out if VIX were to close above the peak that triggered this recommendation - 28.10.

Follow-up action:

All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.

We are using a standard rolling procedure for our SPY spreads: In any vertical bull or bear spread, if the underlying hits the short strike, then roll the entire spread. That would be roll up in the case of a call bull spread or roll down in the case of a bear put spread. Stay in the same expiration and keep the distance between the strikes the same unless otherwise instructed.

Also, for outright long options, roll if they become 8 points in-the-money.

Long 1 TSEM (March 20) 140 call and short 1 TSEM (March 20) 155 call: Roll up both sides, 15 points each, if Tower Semiconductor $(TSEM)$ trades at $155.

Long 1 BMO (June 18) 130 call and long 1 BMO (June 18) 130 put: Continue to hold this straddle. Roll the calls up if Bank of Montreal $(BMO)$ trades at $150 and roll the puts down if it trades at $110. Sell the put, and begin to use a trailing, closing stop at $140 for the call.

Long 6 AAL (March 20) 14 puts: We will continue to hold as long as the American Airlines Group $(AAL)$ put-call ratio is on this sell signal.

Long 1 LH (March 20) 280 call: We will hold the call as long as the put-call ratio for Labcorp Holdings $(LH)$ remains on a buy signal.

Long 3 ERAS (March 20) 12.5 calls: Raise the Erasca $(ERAS)$ closing stop to $12.60.

Long 1 SPY (March 20) 688 call and short 1 SPY (March 20) 708 call: This position was based on the "spike peak" buy signal of Feb. 6. That was stopped out when VIX closed above 23.10 on March 3. However, on that same day, a new "spike peak" buy signal was initiated. If you have not closed out this position, roll to the new one.

Long 1 BKR (July 17) 65 call and long 1 BKR (July 17) 60 put: Roll up this Baker Hughes $(BKR)$ call at $75 and roll the put down at $50.

Long 2 ARKK (April 17) 74 calls: We will hold the calls as long as the weighted put-call ratio for ARK Innovation ETF ARKK remains on a buy signal.

Long 2 SLV (March 20) 79 calls and short 2 SLV (March 20) 94 calls: We will hold these spreads as long as the put-call ratio is on a buy signal for iShares Silver Trust SLV. Roll both sides up if SLV trades at the higher strike in the spread.

All stops are mental closing stops unless otherwise noted.

Send questions to: lmcmillan@optionstrategist.com.

Lawrence G. McMillan is president of McMillan Analysis, a registered investment and commodity trading adviser. McMillan may hold positions in securities recommended in this report, both personally and in client accounts. He is an experienced trader and money manager and is the author of "Options as a Strategic Investment." www.optionstrategist.com

(c)McMillan Analysis Corporation is registered with the SEC as an investment adviser and with the CFTC as a commodity trading adviser. The information in this newsletter has been carefully compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. The officers or directors of McMillan Analysis Corporation, or accounts managed by such persons may have positions in the securities recommended in the advisory.

-Lawrence G. McMillan

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March 05, 2026 12:52 ET (17:52 GMT)

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