百度集團-SW25Q4業績點評：AI全面發力，雲、模型與應用協同提速

國泰海通證券

03/06

本報告導讀：業績短期承壓但好於預期，盈利能力邊際趨穩；AI雲與大模型雙輪驅動增長；應用端與自動駕駛打開長期空間。投資要點：盈利預測與投資建議：26-28年收入預測為1359/1450/1557億元(2026/2027年前值1373/1480億元)，經調整淨利潤為195/219/268億元(2026/2027年前值為227/307億元)。基於匯率1港幣=0.88元人民幣及SOTP估值法，調整百度集團...

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免責聲明：投資有風險，本文並非投資建議，以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請，作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考，不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證，投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

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09:13","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","id":"2617402631","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"百度集團-SW25Q4業績點評：AI全面發力，雲、模型與應用協同提速","media":"國泰海通證券","content":"<div>\n<p>本報告導讀：業績短期承壓但好於預期，盈利能力邊際趨穩；AI雲與大模型雙輪驅動增長；應用端與自動駕駛打開長期空間。投資要點：盈利預測與投資建議：26-28年收入預測為1359/1450/1557億元(2026/2027年前值1373/1480億元)，經調整淨利潤為195/219/268億元(2026/2027年前值為227/307億元)。基於匯率1港幣=0.88元人民幣及SOTP估值法，調整百度集團...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260306093152a451df70&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度集團-SW25Q4業績點評：AI全面發力，雲、模型與應用協同提速</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260306093152a451df70&s=b\">網頁鏈接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260306093152a451df70&s=b\">國泰海通證券</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU0417516738.SGD","symbol_name":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc SGD","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260306093152a451df70&s=b","article_id":"2617402631","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260306093152a451df70&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description 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Up","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"09888":1.97,"BIDU":1.97},"content_text":"本報告導讀：業績短期承壓但好於預期，盈利能力邊際趨穩；AI雲與大模型雙輪驅動增長；應用端與自動駕駛打開長期空間。投資要點：盈利預測與投資建議：26-28年收入預測為1359/1450/1557億元(2026/2027年前值1373/1480億元)，經調整淨利潤為195/219/268億元(2026/2027年前值為227/307億元)。基於匯率1港幣=0.88元人民幣及SOTP估值法，調整百度集團目標價至151港幣，維持「增持」評級。業績短期承壓但好於預期，盈利能力邊際趨穩。25Q4百度集團總營收為327.4億元，按年-4.1%，超出彭博一致預期(326.6億元)。其中百度核心收入按年-5.7%至261.1億元，愛奇藝收入按年+2.7%至67.9億元。經調整淨利潤39.1億元，按年-41.8%，超出彭博一致預期(34.6億元)。經調整淨利潤率11.9%，按年-7.7pct，按月-0.2pct。同時，公司宣佈最高50億美元股票回購計劃並首次引入派息政策，股東回報體系進一步完善。AI雲與大模型雙輪驅動增長。2025年AI雲基礎設施收入按年增長34%，AI加速器基礎設施25Q4訂閲收入按年增長143%，企業側AI部署需求持續釋放，推動雲業務向更高質量結構升級。整體來看，AI賦能業務25Q4收入超過110億元，佔百度核心收入的43%，已成為公司增長的重要支柱。公司發布文心大模型5.0並完成模型團隊重組，堅持應用驅動路徑，在多模態理解、創意寫作與指令遵循等場景持續優化。AI原生營銷服務保持高增長，Q4收入27億元，按年增長110%， 數字人 與智能體推動廣告效率與轉化率提升。應用端與自動駕駛打開長期空間。AI應用全年收入突破百億元，個人超級智能業務群整合百度文庫與網盤，加速產品協同。搜索體系持續AI化升級，生成式內容佔比提升，用户體驗與商業效率同步改善。自動駕駛方面，蘿蔔快跑規模化提速，Q4完成340萬次全無人訂單，按年增長超200%，累計訂單突破2000萬次，運營拓展至全球26個城市，部分區域單位經濟逐步改善。隨着規模擴大與技術成熟，公司正由AI投入期邁向兑現期，中長期成長空間逐步打開。風險提示：行業競爭加劇；自動駕駛發展不及預期；AI進展不及預期；芯片技術不及預期。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"1","news_tag":"dataReport","news_rank":0,"isVideo":false,"video":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"need_login_tip":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}