Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0848 ET - Conflict in the Middle East won't cause a direct shock to sugar prices, though sustained higher oil prices could shift sentiment on the commodity, Rabobank's Charles Hart says. Global supply gluts will continue to set the weather for sugar prices, though sustained higher oil prices could shift sugar farmers in Brazil--the world's largest producer of sugar--to produce more ethanol, which would reduce sugar supply. Moreover, disruption to sugar refineries in the UAE and Saudi Arabia caused a jump in the white sugar premium--the price difference between refined and unrefined sugar, Hart adds. Sugar futures in New York trade in line with levels ahead of the U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran last Saturday. (josephmichael.stonor@wsj.com)

0702 ET - The Gulf Arabic economies face their most significant headwind to growth since Covid amid the escalation of the regional conflict in the wake of the joint Israel-U.S. strikes on Iran and Iran's subsequent retaliation, Oxford Economics' Maya Senussi says in a note. Oxford's initial estimates point to overall Gulf Cooperation Council countries' GDP growth being 1.9 percentage points below its previous baseline of 4.4% this year, with Oman and Saudi Arabia seeing more modest deterioration than their smaller neighbours, the lead economists says. Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are members of the GCC. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0624 ET - Given surging energy prices due to the war in Iran, money markets now almost fully price in a rate hike from the European Central Bank this year, LSEG data show. However, this is more likely a temporary readjustment of rate bets than a genuine expectation, Claus Vistesen at Pantheon Macroeconomics says in a note. "We would need to see clearer signs that the energy shock is sustained and feeding into core prices before bringing forward our expectation of 2027 hikes into 2026." Still, risks remain. "Policymakers--bruised by the post-Covid experience and the surge in energy prices after the war in Ukraine--could panic and react to a rising headline inflation rate, which is now set to remain above target." (don.forbes@wsj.com)

0340 ET - Yields on U.K. 10-year government bonds climb to a 3.5 week high as attacks in the Middle East continue. Oil prices turn slightly higher, having fallen earlier after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a stop-gap measure to ease pressure on oil supply. High oil prices are raising concerns about inflation risk, which could prevent the Bank of England from cutting interest rates. "All eyes are on energy markets," RBC rates strategists say in a note. U.K. money markets currently price only a 17% chance of a BOE rate cut in March, down from 83% chance priced in prior to the war, LSEG data show. Ten-year gilt yields rise 4 basis points to a high of 4.577%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0331 ET - Oil prices are largely flat in morning European trade after rising nearly 5% Thursday. Brent crude trades up 0.5% to $85.82 a barrel, while WTI is flat at $75.51 a barrel. Immediate supply constraints might be eased slightly by the U.S.'s decision to allow the sale of Russian oil to India for 30 days but this is not a game-changer, ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey write. The waiver allows the sale of Russian crude and products to India that were loaded onto vessels before March 5 and remains valid until April 4. The move is part of the U.S. administration's plan to slow the surge in oil prices, they write.(adam.whittaker@wsj.com)

0233 ET - The dollar falls as oil prices ease and investors look ahead to the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. Oil prices decline after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a stop-gap measure to ease pressure on oil supply resulting from the Middle East conflict. The conflict has pushed up oil prices and lifted the dollar in recent days as the U.S. is a net oil exporter and the market has scaled back interest-rate cut expectations for the Federal Reserve due the potential inflationary implications. The payrolls data are due at 1330 GMT and are usually key for shaping rate expectations, although could be overshadowed by the ongoing geopolitical tensions. The DXY dollar index falls 0.3% to 98.991. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0141 ET - A planned April summit between Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping is expected to prioritize security assurances rather than a long-awaited trade deal, according to Macquarie Capital's Eugene Hsiao in a research note. "For China, strikes on Iran supercharge global stability concerns already in place since January following U.S. military actions in Venezuela," the head of China Equity Strategy says. National security remains the top theme for Chinese equities in 2026. "Beyond oil, we see second-order winners in renewables and consumer reflation trades," Hsiao says. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

2331 ET - While there seems to be no end in sight to the conflict in the Middle East, with U.S. President Trump indicating he is willing to fight for several more weeks, AMP expects him to eventually find a way to declare victory before significant energy disruption and higher inflation expectations become entrenched. My Bui, economist at AMP, says U.S. voters' top concern remains inflation and affordability, and with the midterm elections coming up, it is likely that Trump will take an off-ramp to limit consumer dissatisfaction with rising gasoline prices. There is also limited domestic support from the MAGA base and even the Republican Party for "forever wars," she adds. (james.glynn@wsj.com; X @JamesGlynnWSJ)

2150 ET - Geopolitics and the global macro backdrop remain supportive of gold, State Street Investment Management says in a note. "Geopolitical heat in the Middle East has returned to the fore," the strategists say, noting it has prompted a safe-haven bid across macro markets including gold and U.S. dollar. "Gold remains an under-owned portfolio asset with significant room for both tactical and strategic holdings to expand through 2026," they say. Gold could re-test $5,500/oz-$5,600/oz in March if the conflict in Iran escalates, they add. Spot gold is 0.8% higher at $5,124.80/oz. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

1200 ET - The rally in crude oil futures picks up steam as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz increases concerns of more production being shut in in the region. The offer of insurance support through the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and possible naval escorts to protect shipping through the strait will take time, and may not be enough, says Jay Truesdale, CEO of risk consultancy TD International. "The security risk must be properly underwritten and priced, just like any insurance company would demand," he says. U.S. naval escorts could play a role, particularly if there are U.S.-flagged ships, "but the volume of shipping that goes through the strait is so prodigious that escorts cannot provide one-to-one vessel coverage." WTI rises 6.4% to $79.47 a barrel. Brent is up 3.8% at $84.53. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

1141 ET - As winter storms pass, and sales rebound from pantry stocking, food producers face significant headwinds, Mizuho analysts say in a research note. After a surge in sales from consumers stocking up ahead of winter storms, baking products, snacks, bread and canned meat are now seeing softness, the analysts say. Dairy is under the most pressure post-storms with a 5% decline in sales. Median pricing, meanwhile, has ticked up. The analysts expect that cuts to federal food assistance programs and larger GLP-1 adoption will continue to challenge food producers in the next year.(amira.mckee@wsj.com)

1123 ET - An updated Farm Bill passed through the House Agriculture Committee overnight, by a 34-17 vote. The latest iteration of the bill includes provisions extending to farmers and meatpackers alike, including a provision blocking meatpackers from having to adhere to California's Proposition 12 requirements. The bill that passed through committee was met with support from agricultural interest groups, with the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture calling for "House leadership to swiftly bring the legislation to the floor for consideration." CBOT grain futures are mostly higher with corn up 1.1%, soybeans flat, and wheat up 1.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 06, 2026 08:52 ET (13:52 GMT)

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