Crude oil prices will rise above $100/bbl next week if there is no resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, Goldman Sachs analysts said Friday, adding that both crude and refined product prices could surpass highs reached in 2008 and 2022.

The investment bank attributed its bullish forecasts to expectations that oil and refined product exports from the region won't return to normal levels for some time.

Goldman estimated oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are at just 2 million b/d, or 10% of 20 million b/d before U.S. and Israel struck Iran on Saturday.

The bank also said it believes Gulf producers were able over the past four days to redirect about 900,000 b/d of oil that would normally transit the Strait through pipelines and increased shipments from Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port in the Red Sea and the United Arab Emirates' port of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman, a number well below the normal 3.6 million b/d capacity.

The bank said it doesn't expect a quick fix to the drop in oil flows through the Strait, citing high physical shipping risks and a lack of insurance and guarantees for shipowners.

It added that the size of the supply shock is "unprecedented" and is about 17 times as large as April 2022, after Western countries sanctioned Russian petroleum exports following its invasion of Ukraine in February of that year.

"We now also think it's likely that oil prices, especially for refined products, would exceed the 2008 and 2022 peaks, if Strait of Hormuz flows were to remain depressed throughout March," the analysts said.

Brent oil price hit an nominal high of $147.50/bbl in July 2008 on strong demand and speculation before it quickly retreated later that year. In March 2022, Brent also soared toward $140/bbl on fears over a global energy shortage due to Ukraine war.

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

-- Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Jeffrey Barber, jbarber@opisnet.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 06, 2026 17:20 ET (22:20 GMT)

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