By Janet H. Cho

Major U.S. airlines are juggling higher jet fuel costs and travel disruptions since the U.S. and Israel launched their attacks on Iran, and it's weighing on their stocks.

Spot jet fuel prices in some markets have risen by about 60 cents a gallon since the end of February, to as high as $418.74 in Los Angeles and $392.24 in New York Harbor, according to OPIS, an energy data and analytics company that shares the same owner with Barron's. President Donald Trump launched his war on Iran on Feb. 28.

The rising jet fuel costs for carriers led TD Cowen analyst Tom Fitzgerald to lower his price targets for several airline stocks, including American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, and United Airlines, as it will erode profitability.

"We assume the airlines are able to recapture a portion of the spike in fuel prices, but it's hard to envision margin expansion this year barring a rapid decline in energy prices," Fitzgerald said.

TD Cowen cut its price target for American to $13 a share from $17, Delta to $71 a share from $82, and United to $128 a share from $140. He also cut his price targets for Air Canada, Alaska Air, JetBlue, and Southwest Airlines.

Fitzgerald believes an investor conference next week could be the opportunity for airline executives to update their first-quarter guidance or even pull their full-year outlooks. Other than fuel costs, the industry has had some positive momentum so far this year, he noted.

Shares of Southwest Airlines and American Airlines have dropped about 12.5% from Feb. 27, the day before the attacks, through Monday's close. United Airlines Holdings stock has dropped 11.1% in that time, while Delta Air Lines is down 7.8%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

The U.S. Global Jets ETF, which tracks airlines' performance, is down 9.4% since the close of trading on Feb. 27.

The stock drops are starker for regional carriers. Shares of Allegiant Travel Co. are down 19.3%; JetBlue Airways is down 18.4%; Frontier Group is down 14.9%; Alaska Air Group is down 16.2%; Sun Country Airlines Holdings is down 15.7%; and SkyWest is down 10.5%.

United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said last week that rising fuel prices will have a "meaningful" impact on the carrier's first-quarter earnings results, CNBC reported. When asked how quickly those increases would increase fares, he said that it would "probably start quick."

Jet fuel prices are rising alongside the rise in crude oil prices, a reaction to the Iran war, which has all but shut down the vital Strait of Hormuz, the passageway for 20% of the world's oil supply.

American carriers are less affected by the shutdowns and disruptions the war has created at airports and airspace across the Middle East, but they are affected by a partial federal government shutdown here, which has created chaos at some major hubs, including Houston and Atlanta.

The Department of Homeland Security, which is still waiting for Congress to approve its funding through September, has been warning about hourslong waits at airport security. That's because tens of thousands of officers who work for DHS agency the Transportation Security Administration are working without pay during the shutdown.

TSA officers received partial paychecks at the end of February and won't receive their next paychecks scheduled for this weekend. Reports of long security lines and missed flights because of them have popped up on social media.

Johnny Jones, secretary-treasurer for the American Federation of Government Employees Council 100, which represents more than 45,000 TSA officers at 435 airports nationwide, told Barron's that he and his co-workers are working without pay and that if there are shortages of TSA officers at airports, it's because the workers are struggling to buy gas or pay for child-care to come to work.

After the 43-day shutdown last year, during which TSA officers missed three and a half paychecks, he said most people didn't receive their back pay for weeks after the government reopened.

Write to Janet H. Cho at janet.cho@dowjones.com

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March 09, 2026 18:18 ET (22:18 GMT)

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