By Shaina Mishkin

Mortgage rates are more than half a point lower than last spring. Home price gains are negligible. And first-time buyers, long a missing link of the housing market, represented some 34% of February sales, one of the highest rates in five years, according to National Association of Realtors data.

One reason: Housing costs are the most affordable they've been relative to median U.S. family income since 2022, according to an NAR index. "First-time buyers are perhaps eagerly wanting to take advantage of the improvement in affordability," says Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist.

Still, buyers aren't fully back. February's sales, at a 4.09 million pace, rose from the prior month's 4.02 million, beating estimates of 3.84 million, but are still down from a year prior. Prices, at a median $398,000, were up 0.3% from the previous year, marking the third straight month of gains under 1%. "If the spring homebuying season really kicks higher because of an improvement in affordability, we really need to have inventory," says Yun. "Otherwise, prices will shoot higher, and it's going to perpetuate, exacerbate that K-shaped economy."

He also warns of other risks. Mortgage rate relief could be fleeting if rising inflation expectations send 10-year Treasury yields higher. That's already happening as a result of the Iran war and higher oil prices. Since the end of February, 30-year fixed rates from Mortgage News Daily have popped 0.15 percentage point to 6.24%.

Write to Shaina Mishkin at shaina.mishkin@dowjones.com

Last Week

Markets

On Monday, day 10 of the war in Iran, Gulf states cut oil output, global prices surged over $100 a barrel, and G-7 finance ministers met to discus the largest release of oil reserves ever. Iran named the late Ayatollah Khamenei's son supreme leader. Stocks plunged, then reversed after President Trump said the war wouldn't last "very long." But stocks fell again as oil rose, despite the reserve release and U.S. easing of sanctions on Russian oil. Iran then mined the Strait of Hormuz and attacked ships and oil facilities. In the U.S., a federal judge blocked subpoenas in the Jerome Powell probe. On the week, the Dow industrials fell 2%; the S&P 500, 1.6%; and the Nasdaq Composite, 1.3%.

Companies

Anthropic, supported by Microsoft, sued the Department of Defense for designating it a supply-chain risk. Companies sold $65 billion in debt after Trump war comments, a one-day record; Amazon.com raised $37 billion. BlackRock limited redemptions of its flagship private-debt fund, and JPMorgan Chase began marking down loan portfolios. Vertiv, Lumentum, Coherent, and EchoStar will join the S&P 500 index, replacing Match Group, Molina Healthcare, Lamb Weston, and Paycom Software. The U.S. began tariff investigations of forced labor in 60 countries.

Deals

Starboard Value took a stake in Lamb Weston...Bill Ackman is listing his management company, Pershing Square Inc., and its closed-end fund, Pershing Square USA, on the New York Stock Exchange.

Next Week

Wednesday 3/18

The Federal Open Market Committee announces its monetary-policy decision. The central bank is widely expected to keep the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%. The FOMC also releases its quarterly Summary of Economic Projections. The Fed is in a tricky position, with the most recent jobs report showing a decline of 92,000 in nonfarm payrolls. Meanwhile, oil is up by more than a third since the Iran war started, stoking fears of future inflation. On top of that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, and his potential successor, Kevin Warsh, is still waiting to be confirmed by the Senate. Traders are leaning toward the inflation side of the Fed's dual mandate, pricing in about one quarter-point interest-rate cut by the end of the year, down from two to three at the end of February.

Micron Technology reports quarterly results after the market close on Wednesday, and FedEx follows suit on Thursday.

Thursday 3/19

The Census Bureau reports new residential sales data for January. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 725,000 new single-family homes sold, 20,000 fewer than in December. The median sales price of a new home was $414,400 at the end of last year, a 2% decline from December 2024.

The Numbers

87%

The percentage of crude oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz that was sold into Asian markets in 2025.

26%

Year-to-date rise in shares of S&P 500 energy stocks as of Friday, mostly from surging energy prices.

300 K

Estimates of how many new electricians will be needed over the next decade to meet AI demand.

10%

How much the KBW Nasdaq Bank index is down in 2026, fallout from fears of exposure to private credit.

Write to Robert Teitelman at bob.teitelman@dowjones.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 13, 2026 20:59 ET (00:59 GMT)

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