By Teresa Rivas

Ulta Beauty's fiscal fourth quarter results are getting an ugly reaction on Wall Street, but there is a lot to like about the quarter -- and the stock.

Shares of Ulta are down 19% since Barron's recommended them less than a month ago, with more today's selloff accounting for more than 10%. But with some 11 months to go for our typical investment timeline, there's still plenty to like about the stock. Indeed, investors should see this as a buying opportunity.

A bottom-line miss and conservative guidance are the main issues driving shares lower. That looks like a classic market overreaction as it is prudent for consumer-related companies to be cautious in an environment where higher fuel prices could have spillover effects on spending.

Ulta's forecast for comparable sales to rise between 2.5% and 3.5% for the year came in below consensus expectations at the midpoint, partially a victim of Ulta's own past success as it faces more difficult comparisons. "Importantly, this posture is consistent with Ulta's historically conservative [guidance] and likely reinforced by the combination of a new CFO as well as the increasingly uncertain geopolitical backdrop," notes Raymond James analyst Olivia Tong.

Likely flat operating margins for the year isn't ideal, but William Blair analyst William Carden expects the recent gap down in the shares "could close quickly now that the deck has been set for 2026 with a relatively flat operating margin outlook."

Moreover, the quarter itself included plenty of good news. Earnings per share of $8.01 was still well above the company's own forecast, sales surprised to the upside, and gross margins were better than expected. All of Ulta's major categories delivered year-over-year growth, and that momentum is strong across both digital channels and physical stores. The former should get a boost by the company's soon-to-be launched TikTop shop as well.

"We don't think this broad-based strength is commonplace for other retailers today," writes UBS analyst Michael Lasser.

It's also worth noting that Ulta's fourth-quarter comps of 5.8% are a country mile ahead of flat comps in Kohl's Sephora business. TD Cowen analyst Oliver Chen highlights its "differentiated 'low-to-luxe' portfolio that continues to support both trade-up and trade-down behavior."

Ulta is still generating plenty of cash too, which can support a planned $1 billion in share repurchases this year.

With war rattling markets and oil price spikes looming as a headwind across the consumer discretionary space, it's easy to understand the outsized negative reaction to the Ulta report. Yet the setup still looks strong for another good year ahead.

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March 13, 2026 23:44 ET (03:44 GMT)

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