OPENING CALL

Stock futures were edging higher Monday on hopes that other countries would join the U.S. effort to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.

Seven countries had reportedly been asked to help police the passage, however oil prices continued to rise and publicly many countries have been noncommittal given the risks involved.

Pepperstone's Michael Brown said markets and the macro outlook hinged more on when transits through the Strait begin to normalize than an end to hostilities.

"The longer the strait is impassable, the tighter commodity supply will become, thus the higher prices will likely go, and the greater the inflationary impulse that will follow."

"Though we all clearly hope that conflict does indeed end sooner rather than later," he conceded that the timing of the two need not coincide.

This week will see investors focused on the Federal Reserve meeting and how policymakers assess the impact of higher oil prices.

There will also be policy decisions from the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, Bank of Japan, among others.

No doubt the fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine, which caused a jump in import prices that forced global central banks -including the Fed and the ECB-to rapidly raise policy rates, will be fresh in policymakers' minds, but Danske Bank expects central banks to be in wait-and-see mode-for now.

The premier global AI conference NVIDIA GTC starts Monday with a keynote from Jensen Huang, and runs through Thursday.

Stocks to Watch

Meta shares rose 3.2% premarket. A report that Meta could cut 20% or more of its workforce reinforces the narrative that AI was improving productivity across the tech sector, Jefferies said.

Watch For:

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for February; Canada Housing Starts for February; Canada CPI for February

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MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar was little changed, staying close to its highest in more than nine months hit on Friday.

The currency remained in demand as Brent traded at over $105 a barrel, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively closed.

The U.S. attacked Iran's Kharg Island, a key point for Iran's oil industry, and Iran attacked the oil port in Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates.

"The global demand for the liquidity and the (perceived) safety of the dollar doesn't break," DZ Bank said.

ING said t he dollar was likely to stay bid as focus turned to the Fed meeting.

Traders will want clear evidence of improvement in the conflict before trying to pick a top in the dollar, it added.

Uncertainty in energy supply was likely to expose the euro to weakness versus the dollar, Danske Bank said.

"Energy supply uncertainty could well prolong even further."

As long as this continues, Danske sees risks of the euro declining even further versus the dollar.

Bonds:

Treasury yields fell as investors shifted focus to observing the Fed's reaction to the Middle East crisis at this week's meeting.

Money markets expect the Fed to keep policy rates unchanged and price in only one rate cut for the year, according to LSEG.

Energy:

Oil prices rose , with Brent crude at $105 a barrel despite Trump's calls for other nations to help safeguard the Strait of Hormuz.

Over the weekend, the U.S. launched strikes on Kharg Island--the site of Iran's main oil terminal--though oil facilities weren't damaged.

"It still poses supply risks, particularly given that Iranian oil is about the only oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz," ING said.

"Targeting Iranian oil infrastructure only increases the risk that Iran will further target regional energy infrastructure."

The IEA said oil reserves from Asian and Oceanic countries will be released immediately, while stocks from Europe and the Americas will start flowing by the end of March.

Metals:

Gold fell , as rising energy prices raised concerns around rate cuts and supported the dollar.

Silver was also down 2.6%.

Pepperstone said if the $5,000 level for spot gold was decisively breached, it could fall further to the $4,850-$4,900 support zone .

Aluminum

Prices continue to trade above $3,400 a metric ton as supply disruptions in the war in the Middle East constrained exports of the metal and supplies of alumina feedstock.

Aluminium Bahrain, operator of the world's largest single-site aluminum smelter, suspended 19% of its production capacity due to ongoing supply-chain disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

"Beyond supporting outright prices, it should keep regional premiums elevated," ING said.

"Any price pullbacks are likely to be shallow, with tight spot availability continuing to underpin both prices and premia."

ANZ said the war put about 9% of global supply at risk and affected plans to expand smelting capacity.

   TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES 

UniCredit to Launch Offer to Raise Commerzbank Stake Above 30%

UniCredit said it is launching an offer to increase its stake in Commerzbank above 30%, but that it doesn't expect to achieve control of the German lender.

The Italian bank said Monday that the offer exchange ratio would be determined by Germany's financial watchdog in the coming days, but that it anticipates the ratio at 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share, implying a price of 30.80 euros, equivalent to around $35.17, a share.

Foxconn Quarterly Profit Falls Despite Higher Revenue

Foxconn Technology Group's net profit for the final quarter of 2025 fell despite continued robust demand for its artificial-intelligence servers amid the global data-center boom.

The Taiwanese company, formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry, on Monday posted a 2% decline in net profit to 45.21 billion New Taiwan dollars, equivalent to US$1.41 billion. That missed the NT$60.88 billion analysts expected, according to FactSet.

Airline Executives Urge Congress to End Partial Government Shutdown

Top executives of major carriers, including Delta Air Lines, American Airlines and Southwest Airlines, are urging Congress to restore funding to the Department of Homeland Security and pass bills guaranteeing that air-traffic controllers and airport security officers get paid during government shutdowns.

"Once again, air travel is the political football amid another government shutdown," the executives wrote in an open letter to Congress published Sunday online and in the Washington Post.

Oil Industry Warns Trump Administration That Fuel Crunch Will Likely Worsen

American oil executives delivered a bleak message to Trump officials in recent days: The energy crisis the Iran war has unleashed is likely to get worse.

In a series of White House meetings Wednesday and recent conversations with Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the CEOs of Exxon Mobil, Chevron and ConocoPhillips warned that the disruption to energy flows out of the vital Strait of Hormuz waterway would continue to create volatility in global energy markets, according to people familiar with the matter.

ECB and Bank of England to Stand Pat as Iran Conflict Upends Forecasts

Europe's central bankers will be in a familiar but uncomfortable position when they meet to decide policy Thursday: waiting for the fog of war to clear a little before they can pick out a safe path forward.

Policymakers at the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and their counterparts in Sweden and Switzerland are expected to leave their key interest rates unchanged.

China's Economy Off to Steady Start in 2026 Amid Lowered Expectations

BEIJING-China said its economy started the year on a steady footing, giving leaders more breathing room to try to shift the country's growth engine toward consumption just days after lowering its official growth target for the year.

Readings on retail sales, fixed-asset investment and industrial output all came in roughly in line with expectations in January and February, though data on the property sector continued to show signs of weakness.

Hack on U.S. Medical Company Shows Reach of Iran's Cyber Capabilities

WASHINGTON-Iran pulled off likely the most significant wartime cyberattack against the U.S. in history, leveraging its hacking powers to cause major disruptions at a global medical-equipment firm that struggled to bring itself back online in recent days.

The attack brought a conflict that until now had been largely confined to the Gulf region to the American homeland and offered a preview of the potential for how Iran may broaden its response to the U.S. and Israeli military campaign.

Cubans Intensify Protests After Sundown, Protected by the Night and Blackouts

When the sun sets, a growing number of Cubans are banging pots in protest against an authoritarian regime they blame for dire living conditions. In one town, residents sacked the headquarters of the ruling Communist Party, making a bonfire with the office furniture on Saturday.

"Libertad, libertad," shouted hundreds of demonstrators as they faced off against police outside the precinct in Morón, a city of about 70,000 near Cuba's northeastern coast. Protesters then marched to the offices of the ruling Communist Party, according to the Cuban government and videos posted on social media.

Allies to Trump: We'll Live With Tariffs, Just Don't Make Them Any Higher

U.S. trading partners are pushing President Trump to stick to previously agreed tariff levels after his administration kicked off probes aimed at replacing the levies struck down by the Supreme Court.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

March 16, 2026 06:05 ET (10:05 GMT)

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