MW Here's what happens after the S&P 500 breaks under the 200-day moving average following a long run

By Steve Goldstein

A close below the S&P 500's 200-day moving average hasn't been fatal for stocks, historically.

The S&P 500 on Thursday snapped a 214-session run over its 200-day moving average - but an examination of the data finds dipping below isn't necessarily so terrible.

MarketWatch vibe-coded a tool, with an assist from Claude, to look at stock-market performance since the S&P 500's launch in 1957 and found 153 instances of streaks of at least two sessions above the 200-day moving average.

The average 12-month performance after a streak was broken was a median gain of 9%. In the 22 times that streak was between 127 and 252 sessions - like this one - the subsequent gain is 10%, and the move was higher 70% of the time.

   Consecutive sessions S&P 500 over 200-day average  Count  Median return next 12 months (%)  Best return (%)  Worst return (%)  Percentage of 12-month returns positive 
   2-20 days                                          82     7                                 49               -41               59 
   21-63 days (1-3 months)                            24     9                                 33               -39               75 
   64-126 days (3-6 months)                           11     13                                29               -13               82 
   127-252 days (6-12 months)                         22     10                                40               -13               70 
   253-504 days (1-2 years)                           13     7                                 46               -9                62 
   505+ days (2+ years)                               1      29                                29               29                100 
   ALL EVENTS                                         153    9                                 49               -41               65 

The last time it happened when there's enough data to show 12-month performance, was the 336-session streak that ended March 10, 2025, which saw a subsequent 21% gain.

The 395-session run that ended Jan. 20, 2022, saw the S&P 500 fall 9% over the next 12 months, however.

The way to think about the phenomenon is that there's been a pullback. That could lead to an outright bear market but, more likely than not, sets the stage for subsequent, if not explosive, gains.

The S&P 500 SPX on Thursday closed 5% below its late January peak. It still is up 17% over the last 52 weeks.

-Steve Goldstein

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March 20, 2026 05:54 ET (09:54 GMT)

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