Bitcoin Trails Money Supply Growth as Energy Costs and Rates Bite

Decrypt

15小時前

In brief Bitcoin has diverged sharply from global M2 growth, with one model suggesting a ~$136,000 fair value versus current levels near $70,000. Analysts say tight U.S. monetary policy is limiting ...

网页链接

免責聲明：投資有風險，本文並非投資建議，以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請，作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考，不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證，投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

熱議股票

{"basename":"/hant","ssrTDKData":{"titleTemplate":"%s - 老虎證券","title":"老虎证券全球投资理财平台| 一站式投资美股新股港股A股","description":"老虎证券助您一站式投资美股，新股，港股，A股等全球金融理财产品。新加坡华人最信赖的在线投资平台，现在加入即享低费用，24/5 无时差炒美股投资理财！","keywords":"老虎證券,老虎證券開戶,老虎券商,老虎證券官網,老虎證券app,tigertrade老虎證券,股票,炒股,新加坡股票交易平臺,投資,投資理財","social":{"ogDescription":"老虎证券助您一站式投资美股，新股，港股，A股等全球金融理财产品。新加坡华人最信赖的在线投资平台，现在加入即享低费用，24/5 无时差炒美股投资理财！","ogImage":"https://c1.itigergrowtha.com/portal5/static/media/og-logo.be62fbe1.png","ogUrl":"https://www.itiger.com/hant/news/2620205959"},"companyName":"老虎證券"},"pageData":{"isMobile":false,"isTiger":false,"isTTM":true,"region":"SGP","license":"TBSG","edition":"fundamental"},"isCrawlerRequest":true,"__swrFallback__":{"@#url:\"https://stock-news.skytigris.cn/v3/news\",params:#id:\"2620205959\",edition:\"fundamental\",auth_exemption:1,,,undefined,":{"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2620205959?lang=zh_TW&edition=fundamental","thumbnail":"https://img.decrypt.co/insecure/rs:fit:3840:0:0:0/plain/https://cdn.decrypt.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-decrypt-style-17-gID_7.png@webp","is_english":true,"pubTime":"2026-03-20 01:56","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2620205959","market":"nz","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"Bitcoin Trails Money Supply Growth as Energy Costs and Rates Bite","media":"Decrypt","content":"<div>\n<p>In brief\nBitcoin has diverged sharply from global M2 growth, with one model suggesting a ~$136,000 fair value versus current levels near $70,000.\nAnalysts say tight U.S. monetary policy is limiting ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://decrypt.co//361864/bitcoin-trails-money-supply-growth-as-energy-costs-and-rates-bite\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"decrypt_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bitcoin Trails Money Supply Growth as Energy Costs and Rates Bite</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBitcoin Trails Money Supply Growth as Energy Costs and Rates Bite\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Decrypt</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-03-20 01:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In brief\nBitcoin has diverged sharply from global M2 growth, with one model suggesting a ~$136,000 fair value versus current levels near $70,000.\nAnalysts say tight U.S. monetary policy is limiting ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://decrypt.co//361864/bitcoin-trails-money-supply-growth-as-energy-costs-and-rates-bite\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"https://decrypt.co//361864/bitcoin-trails-money-supply-growth-as-energy-costs-and-rates-bite\">Decrypt</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BITX","symbol_name":"2倍比特幣期貨ETF-Volatility Shares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://decrypt.co//361864/bitcoin-trails-money-supply-growth-as-energy-costs-and-rates-bite","article_id":"2620205959","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://img.decrypt.co/insecure/rs:fit:3840:0:0:0/plain/https://cdn.decrypt.co/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Bitcoin-decrypt-style-17-gID_7.png@webp"],"rights":{"source":"decrypt_highlight","url":"https://decrypt.co//361864/bitcoin-trails-money-supply-growth-as-energy-costs-and-rates-bite","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620205959","pubTimestamp":1773942962,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"decrypt_highlight","name":"Decrypt"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Higher fuel costs and restrictive financial conditions are absorbing consumer liquidity, helping explain why expanding global money supply has yet to translate into gains for Bitcoin.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"decrypt.co","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"BITX":"2倍比特币期货ETF-Volatility Shares","BITO":"比特币期货ETF-ProShares","BTC":"Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust"},"translate_title":"由于能源成本和利率下降，比特币货币供应增长落后","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"BITX":0.6,"BTC":0.6,"BITO":0.6},"content_text":"In brief\nBitcoin has diverged sharply from global M2 growth, with one model suggesting a ~$136,000 fair value versus current levels near $70,000.\nAnalysts say tight U.S. monetary policy is limiting how global liquidity flows into risk assets despite expanding money supply.\nRising gasoline prices may offset larger tax refunds, reducing discretionary cash that typically supports equities and crypto.\nBitcoin is trading at a steep discount to global liquidity trends, according to new analysis from CF Benchmarks, even as macro headwinds tied to energy prices and monetary policy complicate the outlook for risk assets and economic growth.Global M2 money supply has risen about 12% since mid-2025, while Bitcoin has fallen roughly 35% over the same period, the Kraken-owned index provider said. One model cited in the report, published Thursday, implies a 「fair value」 of about $136,000, compared with Bitcoin’s current price near $70,000.The divergence marks one of the largest gaps on record between Bitcoin and a metric long viewed by analysts as a proxy for global liquidity. Historically, expansions in money supply have filtered into risk assets, with Bitcoin often responding more sharply than equities.「The key takeaway from more than a decade of data is that divergences between M2 and Bitcoin have historically been temporary,」 Gabe Selby, Head of Research at CF Benchmarks, told Decrypt in an emailed statement.Analysts say the missing link is U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve has reduced its balance sheet to around $6.7 trillion from a peak near $9 trillion in 2022 and maintains elevated interest rates, keeping financial conditions tight even as liquidity grows elsewhere.That backdrop has limited capital flows into markets, leaving Bitcoin more closely tied to real rates and broader risk sentiment than to headline money supply growth.The elephant in the roomAt the same time, rising energy prices are adding pressure to household finances. Economists estimate that an 81-cent increase in U.S. gasoline prices since late February could cost households roughly $740 over the year, potentially offsetting much of the boost from larger tax refunds.In January, the White House projected that tax refunds for Americans would increase by an average of $1,000 come winter, compared with previous cycles, citing President Donald Trump’s Working Families Tax Cuts Act.Markets have also focused on potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil supply, and the resulting inflationary risks.Elevated rates and increased oil prices, driven by the U.S.’s ongoing conflict with Iran, have plagued markets in recent weeks, with oil topping $100 a barrel on Thursday before falling back to more modest levels near $92.The combination risks dampening discretionary spending and reducing the pool of capital available for investment in higher-risk assets, including cryptocurrencies and growth stocks, should prices remain high.Still, most experts argue that global economic growth could accelerate again if financial conditions ease and the conflict in the Middle East is contained, providing a major tailwind for crypto.Past cycles suggest Bitcoin tends to catch up with liquidity trends over a multi-quarter horizon, particularly when the Fed shifts toward rate cuts or slows balance-sheet reduction, according to CF Benchmarks.The question is when?Since the pandemic's post-stimulus measures under the Biden administration, inflation has continued to filter through and wreak havoc on prices for goods and services, while the central bank sought to slash its benchmark rate to boost growth.Now, markets are contending with sticky inflation, foreign wars, and monetary tightening, leading to uncertainty among participants about the direction of risk assets. And crypto, which has mostly followed in lockstep with the Nasdaq, remains tied.「An uptick in demand through the TradFi vehicles that helped drive Bitcoin to all-time highs, namely the U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasuries, would provide more direct, mechanical support for a trend reversal,」 Selby said.「Ongoing buying from these cohorts represents a source of structural demand that did not exist in prior cycles,」 he added.Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.Your EmailGet it!Get it!","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"-1","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}