Australian Equities Roundup -- Market Talk

Dow Jones
03/19
 

0251 GMT - In choosing its next CEO, BHP has kept to its usual form: picking a solid operator from within its own ranks to succeed its CEO after a roughly six-year tenure, Citi analyst Ephrem Ravi says in a note. In doing so, it has demonstrated why it is a "long term hold" stock, Ravi says. He says that while BHP tends to underperform in bull markets, it typically significantly outperforms in bear markets and throughout commodity cycles. "Stability of strategy, conservativeness in capital allocation, relentless focus on building skills and capabilities and building big-ticket (but long-term) value creation options are what distinguishes BHP from other miners over the last two decades," Ravi says. BHP shares are down 3.1% at A$48.53. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0154 GMT - Shares of Australia's two oil refiners jump to more than one-year highs as escalating attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure drive up fuel prices. Viva Energy is up 17% at A$2.47, its highest level since February 2025. Ampol gains 5.5% to A$33.25, its highest since August 2024. Australia's refining sector has hollowed out in recent years. Around 15 years ago, it had seven refineries. Coming out of the pandemic, it had two plants. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were last 2.4% higher at US$98.66 a barrel. Front-month Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to US$110.84 a barrel after earlier touching US$112.00 a barrel, the highest intraday level since March 9, ICE data showed. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

0154 GMT - Shares of Australia's two oil refiners jump to more than one-year highs as escalating attacks on Middle East energy infrastructure drive up fuel prices. Viva Energy is up 17% at A$2.47, its highest level since February 2025. Ampol gains 5.5% to A$33.25, its highest since August 2024. Australia's refining sector has hollowed out in recent years. Around 15 years ago, it had seven refineries. Coming out of the pandemic, it had two plants. Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were last 2.4% higher at US$98.66 a barrel. Front-month Brent crude oil futures rose 3.2% to US$110.84 a barrel after earlier touching US$112.00 a barrel, the highest intraday level since March 9, ICE data showed. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

0118 GMT - Scrap-metals recycler Sims has continued to improve its earnings capacity thanks to cost control, improvements in its North America business and increased recycling of used data-center equipment, says Jarden. It upgrades the stock to neutral from underweight. Jarden raises its target on Sims to A$21.50 from A$19.50. "We would become more positive with greater evidence of through-cycle margin durability in Metals and improved visibility on sustainable earnings power in SLS," its e-waste and data-center services arm, Jarden says. Shares are up 5.2% at A$21.76.(rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0059 GMT - Miner 29Metals gains a bull in Morgans, which initiates coverage of the stock with a buy rating. The broker says it views 29Metals "as a compelling turnaround and growth story leveraged to what we see as a strong long-term copper market." At the Golden Grove mine, Morgans expect a restart of Xantho Extended and the development of Gossan Valley improve operational flexibility. At Capricorn Copper, progress toward a restart provides points to medium-term production growth that could diversify earnings, Morgans says. It puts a A$0.54/share target on the stock. Shares are down 9.5% at A$0.335. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0038 GMT - BHP's appointment of Brandon Craig as CEO is low risk and appears to broadly favor the status quo, say CreditSights analysts Wen Li and Shreyas Nampoothiri. "It supports the base case of consistent operational performance and capital discipline, but leaves open the key debate around capital allocation, specifically whether BHP will maintain its conservative stance or eventually pursue larger, more transformative M&A, in line with peers," the analysts say. For now, they expect a continued focus on organic growth over a step-up in M&A activity. BHP is down 2.9% at A$48.62. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0031 GMT - Flight Centre's bull at Citi thinks that its share price fall since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran looks larger than the impact of the conflict on its business. Shares in the Australian travel agent have lost about 10% of their value this month, but analyst Samuel Seow estimates that only 2% to 4% of the group's full-year total transaction value would be affected across the whole of March. He tells clients in a note that there are too many variables to consider to be confident about a precise number, but nonetheless believes that the current impact is less than the share-price fall. Citi has a buy rating and A$16.75 target price on the stock, which is down 2.1% at A$11.58. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

0016 GMT - Ansell's FY 2027 margins could be hit by rising raw material costs stemming from the disruption of global oil supplies, Citi analyst Laura Sutcliffe warns. She acknowledges that the personal-protective equipment maker has shown recently it can successfully pass costs onto its customers but still thinks that input costs could have an impact. She tells clients in a note that the consensus forecast is for Ansell's FY 2027 Ebit margin to expand by 20 bps over FY 2026. Sutcliffe observes that one of Ansell's rivals has flagged nitrile latex availability issues. Nitrile latex is a key glove ingredient and represents 20%-25% of Ansell's raw material costs, she adds. Ansell has a neutral rating and A$35.00 target price on Ansell's stock, which is down 3.9% at A$28.59. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2319 GMT - Barrenjoey takes a more bullish view of coal miner New Hope's long-term dividend payout ratio. New Hope had A$620 million in cash and managed investment funds at the end of January. It also holds some A$300 million of convertible notes on its balance sheet. Barrenjoey says its cash pile should be enough to fund capex and debt repayments. "Once the capex program is complete and the put option is behind it, we suspect New Hope will look to reduce its cash balance, implying a step-up in returns," says analyst Glyn Lawcock. "As such we increase our long-term payout ratio to 80% (from 50%)." It expects New Hope will prioritize dividends over share buybacks. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2304 GMT - AI-assisted stock picking is seen by Macquarie analysts as a potential tailwind to cash equities activity at Australian exchange operator ASX. They observe that recent trading competitions have demonstrated the growing capability of AI models as profitable stock pickers. Recent activity trends are stronger than expected, they say in a note. The analysts point out that the lower average trading fee charged on retail trades in the open market could reduce ASX's average fees, but they nonetheless see higher volumes as a net benefit. Macquarie keeps a A$56.00 target price and "neutral" rating on the stock, which is down 1.5%, at A$49.05. (stuart.condie@wsj.com)

 

2249 GMT - The net impact of higher fuel prices on Qantas Airways's FY 2026 pretax earnings is some A$174 million, Macquarie estimates. Elevated crack spreads since the Iran conflict began are putting a dent in earnings from forward sold air tickets. Macquarie says it's too early to assess the impact on FY 2027 profit. Still, it's likely that higher oil prices and crack spreads continue into 1H. Qantas could raise ticket prices to offset higher fuel costs. "We anticipate Qantas will reduce costs with some flight consolidation, particularly for the U.S. where A380s are flying with lower load factors," Macquarie says. Its price target falls 3.3% to A$11.60/share. Qantas ended Wednesday at A$8.73. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

Macquarie's view of new Woodside Energy CEO Liz Westcott: a safe, experienced pair of hands who has proven themselves. Westcott, who has been acting CEO since December, isn't likely to shift strategy much. Macquarie says her leadership of the Australia business and familiarity with operations could have placed her in a strong position when internal candidates were considered. "We suspect the board may have had to weigh up the risks of going external (e.g. bringing in a change agent) when multiple projects are in execution phase concurrently," Macquarie says. It retains a neutral call on Woodside. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2235 GMT - Macquarie thinks fading fear about Iran and oil prices, combined with generally strong global data, should support improving equity sentiment. It says peak panic related to oil prices could have been on March 9. "For exposure to a relief rally, we favor stocks that fell more than 10% since Operation Fury began, but had EPS upgrades coming out of results," Macquarie says. It promotes Sandfire Resources, ALS, James Hardie, Hub24, Downer EDI, Brambles, Qantas and Charter Hall as ideas. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

2140 GMT - The sharp rise in gasoline and diesel fuel prices in Australia since the start of the Middle East conflict equates to a 20 basis points rise in interest rates for most households, estimates Jefferies. Fuel prices in March so far are some 11% higher than the average of 2025. It's happening in parallel to Australia's central bank raising the official cash rate twice this year so far. "On an annualized basis, assuming spot diesel and gasoline prices prevail, we estimate an additional cost of A$1,014 per household from higher fuel price relative to 2025," analyst Michael Simotas says. Discretionary retail sales started to soften in late 2025. Jefferies expects trends to deteriorate further. It notes consumer sentiment is already at the lowest level since 2020 and more rate hikes are expected. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

 

0544 GMT - BHP's appointment of Brandon Craig as CEO highlights the depth of the miner's internal bench and suggests continuity in its strategic direction, says Daniel Seeney, founder of FiveRock Asset Management. Craig has played a central role in broadening BHP's growth beyond iron ore, particularly in copper and potash, Seeney says. "So the timing of this transition looks sensible as Jansen moves closer to first production," he says. BHP's Jansen potash project is scheduled to move into production in 2027. BHP shares end 0.7% higher in Sydney at A$50.09. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

0506 GMT - Brandon Craig's skills appear well matched to BHP's plans for future growth, particularly in copper, Global X senior investment strategist Marc Jocum says following Craig's promotion to CEO at BHP. "The appointment of Brandon Craig at BHP is effectively like putting the chief engineer of the 'copper engine' in the driver's seat," he says. Jocum says Global X is structurally bullish on materials, with copper its highest conviction exposure. Global X invests in BHP via its exchange-traded funds. "Copper is becoming the electricity of the modern economy critical to AI, electrification and energy transition, while supply remains structurally constrained," says Jocum. "Against that backdrop, BHP offers leveraged exposure to a tightening market just as leadership shifts toward execution." BHP shares are up 0.9% at A$50.18. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 19, 2026 00:00 ET (04:00 GMT)

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