Australia could be more exposed than some other advanced economies because of relatively limited fuel stockpiles with diesel being a "big" worry, said Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar in a Wednesday statement.
Dhar added that Australia has roughly 30 days of stockpiles, while other advanced economies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and the US have significantly more days of stockpiles.
CommBank's assessment of the conflict has shifted as the situation has evolved, with the disruption now expected to last longer than initially thought.
"We think Brent prices of $120 to $150 a barrel is certainly the range in which we're going to see demand destruction come through emerging markets," Dhar added
Dhar added that the conflict is not only affecting oil markets, as Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) spot prices have already jumped sharply, creating potential flow-on risks for gas and electricity prices on Australia's east coast.
"Spot prices for Asian LNG are now around $20 per million British Thermal Units, just under double where they were before this war in the Middle East," Dhar added.
Dhar said that the LNG prices matter because East Coast gas prices often track LNG netback pricing, which can influence electricity prices and become a more pronounced risk during Australian winters, especially in the southern states.
Higher East Coast gas and electricity prices are other inflation points to watch in Australia, on top of higher fuel prices, the statement added.