Federal Reserve Prediction Market Preview: What Will Jerome Powell Say At The FOMC?

Benzinga_recent_news

03/19

Donald Trump said Monday that “a third-grade student” would know it’s time to cut rates and called for an emergency Fed meeting. Jerome Powell will respond at 2:30 p.m. ET today. Polymarket traders ...

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Jerome Powell will respond at 2:30 p.m. ET today.\nPolymarket traders ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51330610/federal-reserve-prediction-market-preview-what-will-jerome-powell-say-at-the-fomc\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"benzinga_recent_news","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Federal Reserve Prediction Market Preview: What Will Jerome Powell Say At The FOMC?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFederal Reserve Prediction Market Preview: What Will Jerome Powell Say At The FOMC?\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga_recent_news</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2026-03-19 00:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Donald Trump said Monday that “a third-grade student” would know it’s time to cut rates and called for an emergency Fed meeting. Jerome Powell will respond at 2:30 p.m. ET today.\nPolymarket traders ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51330610/federal-reserve-prediction-market-preview-what-will-jerome-powell-say-at-the-fomc\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 來源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51330610/federal-reserve-prediction-market-preview-what-will-jerome-powell-say-at-the-fomc\">Benzinga_recent_news</a></p>\n<p>為提升您的閱讀體驗，我們對本頁面進行了排版優化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SHV","symbol_name":"美國短期國債ETF-iShares","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51330610/federal-reserve-prediction-market-preview-what-will-jerome-powell-say-at-the-fomc","article_id":"2620426849","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://cdn.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2026/03/18/Powell-Advises-Fed-Chair-Avoid-Politics.jpeg?optimize=medium&dpr=2&auto=webp&width=240"],"rights":{"source":"benzinga_recent_news","url":"https://www.benzinga.com/markets/prediction-markets/26/03/51330610/federal-reserve-prediction-market-preview-what-will-jerome-powell-say-at-the-fomc","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2620426849","pubTimestamp":1773850020,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"benzinga_recent_news","name":"Benzinga"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"Trump calls for emergency Fed meeting, Powell to respond today. Traders bet on hold, dissent, & Powell's words. Fed's rate cut & leadership uncertain.","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"benzinga.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{"SHV":"美国短期国债ETF-iShares","SHY":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 1-3年国债","FAZ":"三倍做空金融ETF-Direxion","FOMC":"FOMO CORP.","GOVT":"iShares安硕核心美国国债ETF","BK4588":"碎股","SKRE":"TUTTLE CAPITAL DAILY 2X INVERSE REGIONAL BANKS ETF","BND":"债券指数ETF-Vanguard美国","IEF":"债券指数ETF-iShares Barclays 7-10年","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TMF":"3倍做多20年期以上国债ETF-Direxion","BK4096":"电气部件与设备","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BOXX":"ALPHA ARCHITECT 1-3 MONTH BOX ETF","HYG":"债券指数ETF-iShares iBoxx高收益公司债","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IEI":"iShares Barclays 3-7 Year Trea","BIL":"债券指数ETF-SPDR Barclays美国1-3月国债"},"translate_title":"美联储预测市场前瞻：杰罗姆·鲍威尔在FOMC会说什么？","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TMF":0.9,"SHV":0.9,"FAZ":0.9,"ZTmain":0.6,"BOXX":0.9,"HYG":0.9,"ZFmain":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"FOMC":1.5,"TNmain":0.6,"BIL":0.9,"UBmain":0.6,"BND":0.9,"ZBmain":0.6,"IEF":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"SHY":0.9,"SKRE":0.9},"content_text":"Donald Trump said Monday that 「a third-grade student」 would know it’s time to cut rates and called for an emergency Fed meeting. Jerome Powell will respond at 2:30 p.m. ET today.\nPolymarket traders have put $500 million behind a 99.7% chance the Fed holds at 3.50%-3.75%. \nOil near $100 a barrel is pushing inflation up while the labor market is cooling with a 92,000-job loss in February. \nThe Fed can’t cut without pouring fuel on inflation and can’t hike without crushing an already weakening jobs picture, so they’re frozen.\nPolymarket’s dissent markets give a 94% chance Stephen Miran votes against the hold and 78% for Christopher Waller to join him. Both dissented in January. If a third governor breaks ranks, that will make the news. \nOn Kalshi, traders are betting on which specific words Powell uses at the lectern. 「Oil」 is at 84% and 「layoff」 at 85%, the two forces pulling the committee apart. \n「Shock」 has surged 18 points to 56%, suggesting Powell frames the Iran conflict explicitly as a supply shock. But 「Iran」 itself has dropped 16 points to 56%, a bet he opts for diplomatic Fed-speak instead. \n「Slowdown」 has cratered 45 points to 44%, the biggest swing on the board and a hawkish signal that Powell avoids recession-adjacent language.\n「Trump」 at 6%. 「Renovation」 at 5%.\nU.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro is pursuing a DOJ investigation into a Fed headquarters renovation project, and Sen. Thom Tillis has vowed to block all Fed nominations until the probe is resolved. \nPolymarket’s 「Warsh confirmed by May 15」 contract sits at just 62%. If the block holds, the Fed could enter a leadership vacuum when Powell steps down in May.\nPolymarket’s 「How many rate cuts in 2026?」 contract prices one 25-basis-point cut as the leading outcome at 30%, with zero cuts close behind at 24%. \nA Fed working paper published last month found Kalshi achieved a perfect forecasting record on the day before each FOMC decision since 2022. Today’s hold is locked. What the dot plot shows about the rest of 2026 isn’t.\nBefore the war in Iran pushed oil higher, the race was between one and two rate cuts. How fast Trump can finish the conflict will determine how many rate cuts his chosen successor can push through. \nRay Dalio says that the Iran war comes down to a single variable: who controls the Strait of Hormuz, and this is a classic symptom of the declining stage in his macroeconomic \"Big Cycle\" framework.\nImage: Shutterstock\nTo add Benzinga News as your preferred source on Google, click here.","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0,"need_auth":false,"code":"91000000","status":"200"}}}