US equity index futures decline; Dow off ~0.6%
Feb PPI MM, YY > ests; ExFood/Energy MM, YY > ests
Euro STOXX 600 index off ~0.1%
Dollar rises; US crude up >1%; gold, bitcoin both down >2%
US 10-Year Treasury yield edges up ~4.21%
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US STOCK FUTURES RETREAT ON HOT PPI, FED IN FOCUS
The main U.S. equity index futures are red after the release of the latest producer price index $(PPI)$ data.
E-mini S&P 500 futures EScv1 are now down around 0.45% on the day vs. roughly flat just before the data came out. The futures were little changed as investors assess the latest developments out of the Middle East.
The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield US10YT=RR is now around 4.21%. It was about 4.20% just before the numbers were released. The yield ended Tuesday at 4.202%.
February headline PPI on a month-over-month basis was 0.7% vs. a 0.3% estimate, and the year-over-year number was 3.4% vs. the 2.9% Reuters Poll. ExFood/Energy on a month-over-month basis was 0.5% vs. a 0.3% estimate, while the year-over-year print was 3.9% vs a 3.7% Reuters Poll.
Separately, the mortgage market index came out at 347.1 vs. 389.6 last week.
According to the CME's FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed sits on its hands and leaves its current target rate of 3.50%-3.75% unchanged at the conclusion of today's FOMC meeting is unchanged at 99% vs. just before the data was released. The chance that the FOMC cuts rates by 25 basis points is 1%. The decision is due at 2 p.m. EDT.
Interest rate probabilities are now pricing in a total of 20.9 basis points of cuts through December 2026 vs. 23.6 basis points just before the numbers came out.
Most S&P 500 .SPX sector SPDR ETFs are quoted lower in premarket trading. Industrials XLI.P, off around 0.75%, is taking the biggest hit. Just Real Estate XLRE.P, up about 0.3%, and Energy XLE.P, up 0.2%, are higher.
The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF KRE.P is off around 0.2%.
January factory orders are due at 10 a.m. EDT. The estimate is for 0.1% vs -0.7% last month.
Here is a premarket snapshot from around 8:52 a.m. EDT:
(Terence Gabriel)
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EARLIER ON LIVE MARKETS:
SOARING JET FUEL THREATENS EUROPEAN AIRLINE CAPACITY CLICK HERE
BITCOIN AS A SAFE-HAVEN? NOT SO FAST CLICK HERE
SOFTWARE: TIME TO CALL A BOTTOM? CLICK HERE
STOXX EDGES HIGHER AS FED COMES INTO FOCUS, DEFENSIVES LAG CLICK HERE
BEFORE THE BELL: EUROPEAN FUTURES RISE AS OIL PRICES FALL CLICK HERE
TO DOT, OR NOT TO DOT, THAT IS THE QUESTION CLICK HERE
LMData03182026 https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/buzz/mypmykmbgpr/LMData03182026.png
Premarket03182026 https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/buzz/myvmykmjgvr/Premarket03182026.png
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)