MW Global oil prices set to climb for 5th straight week as U.S. sends more military might into the Middle East

By Myra P. Saefong and Isabel Wang

White House reportedly considering plans to occupy or blockade Kharg Island to pressure Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz

A potential plan to blockade Kharg Island is meant to pressure Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to an Axios report.

Oil prices moved higher Friday, with global benchmark Brent crude on track to tally a fifth-straight weekly gain, after the Pentagon said it is sending more troops and warships to the Middle East - the latest sign of escalation in the conflict that started nearly three weeks ago.

Both oil benchmarks had surged to session highs early Friday after Axios reported that the Trump administration was considering plans to open the strait by occupying or blockading the country's Kharg Island, which produces about 90% of its total oil exports. Oil prices were now reversing those modest gains.

The latest "saber-rattling" by President Donald Trump fed a rise in oil prices, said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities USA. Traders are making the assumption that the "chance of a military operation and boots on the ground on the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz today are much more likely than they were at this time last week."

Traders assume that the 'chance of a military operation and boots on the ground on the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz today are much more likely than they were at this time last week.'Robert Yawger, Mizuho Securities USA

That could potentially be a "$130 next level event for Brent," Yawger told MarketWatch.

On Friday, Brent crude-oil for May delivery (BRN00) (BRNK26) climbed 1.3% to $110.12 a barrel. The global oil benchmark traded 6.7% higher for the week and was on pace for its fifth straight weekly advance, according to FactSet data.

The U.S. benchmark, the West Texas Intermediate contract (CL.1) saw its April contract, which expires at the end of the session, rise 1.4% to $97.49 a barrel.

For the week, the WTI contract has fallen 1.2%, according to FactSet data. Yawger attributed the volatility in WTI to the contract expiration as some traders scramble to get out of their positions or otherwise would be required to take delivery of physical crude oil.

Meanwhile, in an interview Friday, Baron Lamarre, former head trader at global energy company Petronas, said the worst-case scenario for crude prices would be U.S. military boots on the ground in Iran.

Should that happen, and the conflict drags on for several months, he still thinks oil prices could stabilize around $150 to $180 a barrel.

But ideally, a diplomatic solution would be reached soon, potentially involving the Europeans, India and China, with Iran being talked down from further hostilities in the Middle East, he said.

I don't see oil at $200 a barrel, said Lamarre, who is now co-founder of international Digital Exchange, a trading platform for tokenized crude oil.

A flurry of news developments have impacted oil trading this week.

On Thursday evening, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told reporters at a press conference that Israel would "hold off" on future attacks on Iran's gas fields in compliance with a U.S. request. "I also see this war ending a lot faster than people think," Netanyahu said.

Read: This is when Trump will need an Iran-conflict offramp if oil prices aren't contained

The fear has been that a series of attacks on energy infrastructure earlier this week could escalate, which could further disrupt the global energy market. Iran hit Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, the world's largest exporter of liquified natural gas, causing extensive damage and leading to a 17% reduction in its production capacity for up to five years, Saad ?al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy's CEO, told Reuters.

It followed Israel's striking of Iran's South Pars gas field, one of the largest natural-gas fields in the world.

Read: The world's largest natural-gas complex is now battered. Here's who will benefit.

Strategists at Barclays, led by Emmanuel Cau, wrote that markets are pricing in about a 50% chance of a severe oil-supply shock, up from 25% just last week.

"It is too early to conclude that this episode will trigger an outright recession, and we note that oil has averaged $80 over the past five years without hurting the economy," they wrote. "But the longer energy prices stay high, the more markets are likely to assign higher probabilities to left tail outcomes and policy mistakes, with rate hikes back on the table now."

Joy Wiltermuth and Nora Redmond contributed.

-Myra P. Saefong -Isabel Wang

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March 20, 2026 11:59 ET (15:59 GMT)

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