The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0658 GMT - If the Iran-Iraq war is any guide about Iran's thinking, then Iran's tolerance for pain is way higher than many analysts think, Jefferies' Mohit Kumar says in a note. Also, negotiations and an end of war may be much trickier than U.S. President Trump might be thinking, the global economist says. As the war might be longer than investors were hoping for, "we could see further risky asset repricing and increased focus on stagflation/recession risk than is currently the case," Kumar says. Positioning is not yet clean in a number of assets as investors were hoping for a quick end to the war, so some more position squaring may be due, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0654 GMT - U.S. President Trump seems to have started his war of choice without any half-realistic exit strategy and against the advice of his own military leaders, Berenberg's Holger Schmieding says in a note. In order to end the war in the near future, he will probably need a deal with the current Iranian regime, the chief economist says. "The deal could be implicit: we stop, but we will hit you hard again if you do not stop yourself in response," he says. "Or it could be explicit, for instance sanctions relief for Iran in return for an end to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs." The balance of risks is tilting toward a further escalation first before a deal to end the war may become likely, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0651 GMT - The continuing Middle East conflict, limited visibility on a ramp-off and central banks' preliminary analysis of the stagflationary environment have prompted a revision to Morgan Stanley's central bank calls, rates strategists Luca Salford and Maria Chiara Russo say in a note. Morgan Stanley now expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in 2026, in June and September, but to unwind those hikes in 2027. Money markets currently price in three ECB rate increases this year, according to LSEG. The strategists also forecast the 10-year German Bund yield ending 2026 at 2.80% and 2027 at 2.70% under their baseline ECB rate-path scenario. The 10-year Bund yield closed at 3.038% on Friday, according to LSEG. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0631 GMT - U.S. Treasury yields rise across the board in Asian trade, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.423%, the highest level since July 2025, before slightly easing from that level, according to Tradeweb data. The rise comes as oil prices remain elevated, with Brent last trading at $113.37. "Tensions in the Middle East remained high over the weekend amid mixed messaging from the U.S. on the outlook for the war, further military actions and engagement around the Strait of Hormuz," Danske Bank's Jens Naervig Pedersen says in a note. The 10-year Treasury yield last trades at 4.417%, up 2.5 basis points. The two-year Treasury yield rises 5.6 basis points to 3.949%. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0615 GMT - Asia-Pacific's growth is expected to slow this year amid a mix of external threats, Moody's Analytics economists write in a commentary. The Middle East conflict has pushed up commodity prices and raised inflation risks. Most Asia-Pacific economies also rely heavily on energy imports, with Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, particularly dependent on imported fossil fuels. Additionally, the region faces tariff uncertainty and has been dependent on exports. "With access to the U.S. market becoming more difficult, the imbalance leaves the region exposed," the economists say. Moody's Analytics expects growth across the Asia-Pacific region to slow to 4% in 2026 from 4.3% in 2025. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

0536 GMT - Asian currencies mostly weaken against dollar during the regional trading session, as high oil prices spurred by the Middle East conflict stoke fears of slower economic growth in the region. The Iran "crisis is already acutely affecting Asia economies," MUFG Bank's Michael Wan says in a report. If this drags on further, it will probably lead to energy shortages across the Asian region, the senior currency analyst says. The dollar rises 0.2% to 93.9240 rupees after earlier touching a record high of 93.9740 rupees, LSEG data show. The dollar is also 0.2% higher at 159.48 yen and up 0.2% at 1,508.20 won. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 23, 2026 02:58 ET (06:58 GMT)

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