Prices have doubled, and are likely to stay elevated. That could be a boon to U.S. exporters like Cheniere, NextDecade, and Venture Global. By Avi Salzman and Alex Kozul-Wright

Attacks by Iran against a major Middle East liquefied natural gas hub could further upend the market for the commodity, and send power prices soaring in Europe and Asia.

The attacks, which occurred late on Wednesday and early Thursday, will knock energy supplies from one of the world's most important energy exporters offline for years. That should keep global liquefied natural gas, or LNG, prices elevated throughout 2026.

It's a boon for American exporters of LNG, most of whose stocks rallied Thursday. Cheniere Energy rose 5.9%; NextDecade was up 4.9%; Venture Global ended the day down 3.8% after rising earlier in the day. Venture stock had already doubled this year.

Iran shot missiles at Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City, causing "extensive further damage" according to QatarEnergy, the state-backed company that runs it. Ras Laffan exports about 20% of the world's LNG. QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that 17% of the company's LNG capacity would be knocked out for three to five years.

This "fundamentally alters the global gas market outlook," according to energy research firm Wood Mackenzie.

European natural-gas prices, already elevated because of the war, soared even more on Thursday. The benchmark Dutch TTF Gas Monthly Contract rallied 12% to 61 euros, or about $71, per megawatt hour, after rising to $85 earlier in the day, a three-year high. Before the war, they traded around $35.

The Qatar LNG hub was already shut down because of attacks earlier in the war, but was expected to return in weeks if the Strait of Hormuz from the Persian Gulf could be reopened. Now the expected timeline for restarting production has been extended substantially.

The American exporters will benefit in the near term because they can sell some LNG cargoes on spot markets to increasingly desperate European and Asian buyers. Venture Global looks particularly well-setup to profit off that trend. Its newest LNG plant in Louisiana is still ramping up, so its long-term contracts aren't in effect yet. For a few months, until its long-term contracts kick in around October, it can sell what it produces from that plant to the highest bidder. Wall Street doesn't appear to have taken that potential windfall into account yet. Analysts have hiked their estimates for the company's 2026 earnings per share by less than 10% since the start of the year, leaving its price-to-earnings ratio for the year at a reasonable 17 times, according to FactSet.

Some analysts think the American producers will also benefit in the long-term, as LNG buyers attempt to protect themselves from geopolitical risks by purchasing more from U.S. exporters. "Even if the disruption proves temporary, LNG's perceived risk profile has likely shifted structurally," wrote Jefferies analyst Julien Dumoulin-Smith on Wednesday.

Plans by Qatar to expand production -- which were initially expected to happen later this year -- will also have to be shelved for an extended period. Before the war, analysts had fretted about an LNG glut forming by 2027, and sending prices lower. That issue now looks off the table.

LNG has kept the lights on in Europe and Asia for the past four years, particularly after Russian pipelines were cut off following the country's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The world does have some LNG in storage, but not the massive strategic government reserves like there are for oil in many countries. European storage was already low, and Europe will have to buy LNG aggressively ahead of next winter, because it's a key fuel for heating.

Qatar isn't the only gas producer being attacked by Iran. Abu Dhabi authorities said Thursday they had intercepted missiles targeting gas facilities in the city of Habshan, which were then shut down. No injuries were reported.

In a Truth Social post early Thursday, President Donald Trump warned against further attacks in Qatar, saying the U.S. "will massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars Gas Field," which Iran controls, if Tehran strikes again.

The major damage may already have been done.

Write to Avi Salzman at avi.salzman@barrons.com and Alex Kozul-Wright at alexander.kozul-wright@barrons.com.

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 20, 2026 21:30 ET (01:30 GMT)

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