Tesla is slated to report first-quarter delivery figures on Thursday. Investors have been less focused on cars lately, but they should still brace for volatility.

Shares of the electric-vehicle maker were up 1.5% at $377.33 in early trading Wednesday, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were up 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

Wall Street is expecting about 366,000 vehicles sold in the first quarter, up from 337,000 a year ago.

The first-quarter 2025 results were a big disappointment. Wall Street was looking for about 378,000 vehicles. Results missed consensus estimates by more than 10% and some of the lowest analyst estimates by about 20,000 vehicles. Deliveries fell 13% year over year, the worst quarterly decline in the company’s history at the time.

Still, the stock finished up 5.3% on the day because of a Politico report that said the EV maker’s CEO Elon Musk was planning to step away from his role in the Trump administration. Politics were blamed for some of Tesla’s sales decline.

Predicting which way Tesla stock will move after a given event isn’t easy. Predicting higher-than-average volatility is a safer bet. Over the past two years, Tesla stock has moved an average of 5%, up or down, following quarterly delivery results. The stock has moved just under 3% a day, up or down, the rest of the time.

Shares have dropped five times and risen three times over the past eight delivery reports.

Shares dropped 2.6% on Jan. 2 after Tesla reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 418,227 vehicles. Wall Street was looking for closer to 423,000. It was a small miss, but investors were braced for a number around 415,000. Sales declined from a record 497,099 vehicles delivered in the third quarter of 2025 as buyers rushed to beat the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV purchase tax credit.

To be sure, investors have been paying less attention to EV sales. They are focused on AI, believing Tesla’s AI opportunities, including robo-taxis and robots, will usher in a new era of earnings growth. Coming into Wednesday trading, Tesla stock was up 112% over the past two years despite two consecutive years of falling EV sales.

Still, cars matter. “Importantly, electric vehicle sales still very much matter to Tesla’s earnings; they accounted for the vast majority of 2025 company revenue,” says Cannacord analyst George Gianarikas.

Any delivery number close to the consensus figure should be enough to keep Tesla stock stable and let investors go back to thinking about AI.