Karishma Vanjani

Investors have been watching the stock market closely since the Iran war began, and with an end perhaps in sight they can look for ways to gain back what they have lost. President Donald Trump has indicated that U.S. military operations against Iran could wrap up in two to three weeks. He is expected to reiterate that timeline in a prime-time address Wednesday night and may offer more information.

Two assets that could jump with a resolution to the war are the euro and global sovereign debt, which have taken a beating lately.

The euro fell 2.2% against the U.S. dollar last month -- the biggest monthly decline since July of last year -- as investors sold the currency to buy the dollar, the world's safe haven. Euro got punished as prices of oil surged, which is a troubling reality for Europe as an energy importer.

The euro can rise if fewer investors choose to hide out in the dollar. The euro could be worth $1.18 if the situation with Iran stabilizes, among other factors, Barclays' global head of FX & EM macro strategy Themistoklis Fiotakis and team predicted over the weekend. That was the effective price for EURUSD before the war; its worth is currently $1.16.

If traffic through the Strait of Hormuz increases considerably while still remaining far below the pre-conflict norm, EURUSD can "largely" snap back, Wells Fargo macro strategy head Michael Schumacher and his team wrote in their note on Wednesday. The end to the war though "is a big if, and also is tough to define."

Another asset to watch is sovereign debts, which have taken a major hit amid the war. When prices of bonds decline, yields go up -- and on average, yields of 10-year debt offered by G-10 countries, which include U.S., Canada, Australia, Japan and others, have gained by 0.3352 percentage points in March, LSEG data show.

In this G-10 group, U.K.'s 10-year debt has taken the biggest hit, as yields gained by 0.682 percentage points last month while the U.S. 10-year yield was up by 0.349 percentage points. "Even in a quick resolution we look for markets to price increasing risk of recession. This in turn should pull down 10yr yields [in most G-10 markets] within a month or two," Schumacher wrote. The U.S. 10-year yield more specifically can move lower by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points within a week, he estimates.

In recent days, bond prices have been rising as traders have realized higher oil prices may endure, hurting consumer and business spending. That has triggered a shift in focus from inflation to worries about economic growth.

Iran's power to disrupt the passage of global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz is likely now a live risk and can keep prices of oil high even after the war.

Write to Karishma Vanjani at karishma.vanjani@dowjones.com.

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 01, 2026 17:31 ET (21:31 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.