MARKET SNAPSHOT

U.S. stocks surged, Treasury yields slipped and oil prices fell on fresh hopes the conflict in the Middle East could be making progress toward a resolution. Gold prices climbed as the dollar weakened.

MARKET WRAPS

EQUITIES

The stock market ended the first quarter on a high note, with all three major U.S. indexes posting their best showing of 2026 on the last day of March.

For weeks, the U.S. war with Iran had weighed on markets, dragging stocks to their worst quarter in nearly four years. But on Tuesday, investors got a glimpse of a potential offramp for the conflict-and they pounced.

President Trump told aides that he's willing to end the war without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that handled roughly a fifth of global energy flows before the conflict. Stock gains accelerated throughout the day, with headlines circulating that Iran, too, could be open to ending the conflict.

"I call this a 'Hormuz Hope' rally," said David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors. "Market agents think this is a turning point."

The S&P 500 rose 2.9%. The Nasdaq composite led gains, surging 3.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.5%.

Earlier Tuesday, Asian stock markets largely fell due to persistent concerns about higher energy costs. However, the Middle East conflict isn't likely to hurt Asian equities' long-term outlook despite heightened near-term volatility, HSBC strategists said.

The Korean Kospi 200 fell 4.6% for its fourth consecutive loss.

Japan's Nikkei lost 1.6% with chip and heavy industry stocks leading the decline.

China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.8% and the Shenzhen Composite gave back 1.7%. The tech-focused ChiNext Price Index declined 2.7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, however, added nearly 0.2%.

Stocks in Australia rose, as the S&P/ASX 200 Benchmark Index rose 0.2%. New Zealand's S&P/NZX 50 Index added 1.3%.

COMMODITIES

Oil futures ended the day lower as hopes were raised for a prompt end to the war in the Middle East.

A WSJ report that President Trump would be willing to end U.S. operations even before the Strait of Hormuz is reopened to avoid prolonging the conflict was followed by reports of Iran's president saying Iran has the will to end the war but needs certain guarantees.

"I think the oil market is going to dictate the end of this war," said Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital. "Trump knows that if oil prices go to $125 or $130 and stay there for a while, it's going to cause havoc for the economy."

WTI fell 1.5% to $101.38. Most-active Brent for June delivery declined 2.6% to $104.63 a barrel, while the May contract expired at $118.35, a nearly four-year high and up 4.9% on the day.

Gold futures managed to finish the first quarter of the year on the positive side, and that's even with March posting the largest monthly decline in over a decade. For the quarter, front-month gold finished trading up 7.4% to $4,647.60 a troy ounce.

But for March, gold futures shed 11% -- the largest monthly decline for gold since June 2013.

Gold gained 2.7% for the session.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

U.S. Home Price Growth Slowed in January

U.S. home-price growth slowed in January as affordability constraints continued to weigh on home buyer decisions.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures home prices across the country, rose 0.9% in the 12 months through January, compared with a 1.1% increase in December.

"The National Index rose 2.2% over the first six months of the period, then fell 1.3% over the most recent six-a swing that explains why annual gains have compressed to under 1% despite prices remaining historically elevated," said Nicholas Godec at S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Trump Tells Aides He's Willing to End War Without Reopening Hormuz

WASHINGTON-President Trump told aides he's willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said, likely extending Tehran's firm grip on the waterway and leaving a complex operation to reopen it for a later date.

In recent days, Trump and his aides assessed that a mission to pry open the chokepoint would push the conflict beyond his timeline of four to six weeks. He decided that the U.S. should achieve its main goals of hobbling Iran's navy and its missile stocks and wind down current hostilities while pressuring Tehran diplomatically to resume the free flow of trade. If that fails, Washington would press allies in Europe and the Gulf to take the lead on reopening the strait, the officials said.

There are also military options the president could decide on, but they aren't his immediate priority, they said.

Consumers' Mood Steady Amid Iran War, Conference Board Survey Suggests

Economic sentiment held steady in March, defying expectations that the Iran war would dim consumers' mood, a survey from research group The Conference Board suggested.

The Conference Board's sentiment index rose to 91.8, from 91 in February. Analysts polled by The Wall Street Journal were anticipating a March decline to 87.5.

The result is at odds with a similar monthly survey, fielded by the University of Michigan, which showed an appreciable March decline in results published last week.

Fed Should Be Ready to Act to Address Inflation Concerns, Kansas City Fed's Schmid Says

The Fed should be ready to act to make sure that fallout from the war in Iran doesn't keep inflation stuck above the central bank's target, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid said.

The economy's fundamentals remain solid and inflation-at nearly 3%-was too far above the Fed's 2% target even before the war began at the end of February, Schmid said in a speech to the Oklahoma City Rotary Club on Tuesday. He said the Fed should be prepared to address elevated inflation proactively so it doesn't get stuck near 3% in the long run.

So far, surveys and financial-market bets have shown little concern from consumers and investors that high inflation will become a long-term problem. But the Fed can't be complacent, Schmid said.

Nike Third-Quarter Profit Declines as Weak Demand in China Drags On

Nike logged lower profit in its latest quarter as sales in China continued to decline.

The sneaker and athletic apparel company on Tuesday posted a fiscal third-quarter profit of $520 million, or 35 cents a share, compared with $794 million, or 54 cents a share, a year earlier. Analysts polled by FactSet forecast earnings of 29 cents a share.

Revenue was roughly flat at $11.28 billion, compared with analyst estimates of $11.23 billion.

OpenAI Closes Silicon Valley's Largest-Ever Funding Round

OpenAI completed the largest funding round in Silicon Valley history, raising $122 billion ahead of a blockbuster IPO expected by the end of the year.

The deal came with an additional perk: greater access to individual investors. As part of the financing, OpenAI raised more than $3 billion from wealthy investors through banks and said it would be included in several exchange-traded funds managed by ARK Invest, the investment firm led by technology bull Cathie Wood.

The deal shows how the ChatGPT-maker is diversifying its shareholder base ahead of its planned public listing, specifically among individual investors keen to gain exposure to some of the hottest names in the artificial-intelligence boom.

Expected Major Events for Wednesday

00:30/TAI: Mar Taiwan Manufacturing PMI

00:30/SKA: Mar South Korea Manufacturing PMI

00:30/JPN: Mar Japan Manufacturing PMI

00:30/THA: Mar Thailand Manufacturing PMI

00:30/INA: Mar Indonesia Manufacturing PMI

00:30/MAL: Mar Malaysia Manufacturing PMI

00:30/PHI: Mar Philippines Manufacturing PMI

00:30/AUS: Feb Building Approvals

01:45/CHN: Mar China Manufacturing PMI

04:00/INA: Feb Trade Balance

04:00/INA: Mar CPI

05:00/JPN: Mar Auto sales

05:30/AUS: Mar Commodity Price Index

06:00/JPN: Feb Revised Machine Tool Orders

08:00/TAI: Mar CIER PMI

08:30/HK: Feb Retail Sales

08:59/SKA: Mar Trade data

23:00/SKA: Mar CPI

23:50/JPN: Mar Monetary Base

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This article is a text version of a Wall Street Journal newsletter published earlier today.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 31, 2026 16:56 ET (20:56 GMT)

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