By David Uberti

What is the price of oil? There isn't just one-and the gaps between them are making the impact of the Iran oil shock hard to gauge.

Benchmark futures slid below $100 a barrel in recent days after President Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran. But prices for U.S. and Brent futures represent rough approximations of what the market might look like one or two months down the road.

At the same time, the cost of physical oil cargoes remains far more elevated, signaling refiners are still racing to lock in short-term supplies. North Sea dated crude oil-a benchmark reported by Argus Media to track on-the-spot physical costs-jumped above $132 a barrel Thursday. In Europe, some bids on cargoes veered even higher.

"This dynamic reinforces a key point: the recent sell-off in crude has been driven more by positioning and headline risk than by a genuine loosening of near-term fundamentals," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote to clients Friday.

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April 10, 2026 11:26 ET (15:26 GMT)

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