MW Oil prices tick higher but stay below $100 a barrel on concerns about a 'fragile' cease-fire

By Isabel Wang and Jamie Chisholm

Oil prices not breaking back above $100 per barrel could be a sign that investors remain hopeful of a breakthrough in the coming days, says one analyst

Traders are wary that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still restricted.

Oil prices rose again Thursday morning amid uncertainty that a cease-fire between the U.S. and Iran would hold, and concerns that shipping would still be constrained through the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery (CL.1) (CLK26) was rising nearly 5%, to $99.16 a barrel. June Brent crude (BRNM26) (BRN00) was up 3.8%, at $98.29 a barrel, according to FactSet data.

Both WTI and Brent on Wednesday saw their biggest one-day percentage decline in almost six years after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire.

However, fears have grown that the U.S. and Iran remain apart significantly on the conditions necessary to secure a longer-term peace deal. President Donald Trump said military assets will remain in the region until one is agreed on, while Vice President J.D. Vance has admitted that the truce is "fragile" as Iran appears to be still insisting it should control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - the conduit for about 20% of global oil supply.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, noted that official data showed only three ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday. She said roughly 800 tankers were waiting to pass through the strait, "which suggests it could be a very long process to get ships flowing." She added, "This could keep a floor on the oil price for now."

But the fact that the oil price has not returned to a level above $100 per barrel could be a sign that investors "remain hopeful of a breakthrough" in the coming days, or at least firmer foundations for the cease-fire to take hold, Brooks said. "This could limit the downside for risk in the short term, and it could cap oil price gains."

The lingering uncertainty about Middle East oil supplies was reflected in a note from Goldman Sachs published late Wednesday.

The bank's team of commodities analysts, led by Daan Struyven, said the cease-fire and pullback in oil prices "are largely in line with our baseline expectation that energy flows through the Strait start to recover this weekend, followed by a gradual 1-month recovery in Persian Gulf exports to pre-war levels."

They are keeping their fourth quarter 2026 forecasts for Brent at $80 and WTI at $75.

But the Goldman team added that they see greater upside risks to their targets if there are longer disruptions and persistent crude production losses in the Persian Gulf region (see chart below).

"In an adverse scenario where the cease-fire doesn't hold, and Strait of Hormuz reopening is postponed for a month, Brent prices can still average $100 a barrel in 2026Q4 [fourth quarter of 2026] if Persian Gulf production fully recovers to pre-war levels and $115 a barrel in a severely adverse scenario where later reopening is followed by persistent 2 million barrel-a-day Mideast production losses," Goldman said.

-Isabel Wang -Jamie Chisholm

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April 09, 2026 08:19 ET (12:19 GMT)

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