MW Why home builders' stocks are getting such a big boost from the cease-fire deal with Iran

By Tomi Kilgore

Falling interest rates and oil prices, which could put more money into the pockets of potential home buyers, provide some hope for a turnaround

Home builders' stocks were seeing a broad rally Wednesday, as lower interest rates resulting from the Iran cease-fire deal could provide some relief for a struggling sector.

Shares of home builders were enjoying a big and broad rally on Wednesday, as investors seemed to believe the Iran cease-fire deal will provide some relief to a struggling housing market.

The biggest problem for home builders has been affordability. They had to offer incentives to get potential buyers - who have been hampered by high asking prices, elevated mortgage rates and inflation in general - off the sidelines. That has created some oversupply of new homes and helped tilt the market in favor of buyers.

On Wednesday, the tumble in crude-oil prices (CL.1) as a result of the cease-fire between the U.S., Israel and Iran reduced inflation fears and led to a drop in Treasury yields. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y, which is used to determine mortgage-interest rates, was down 0.05 percentage points to a four-week low of 4.27%, according to FactSet data.

That decline is good timing, coming a day before housing-finance giant Freddie Mac (FMCC) publishes its weekly report on mortgage rates. Last Thursday, Freddie Mac said the 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.46%, up from 6.38% the week before. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield was below where it closed on April 1, at 4.33%.

The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF ITB ran up 5.5% in recent morning trading, with all 46 equity components trading higher. The exchange-traded fund had been hit particularly hard by the Iran conflict, tumbling 15.8% in March - its biggest monthly decline since it dropped 16.5% in December 2024 - and closing at a nine-month low on March 30. That was more than triple the decline of S&P 500 index SPX, which lost 5.1% in March.

Among the ETF's components, shares of D.R. Horton $(DHI)$, the nation's largest home builder by market capitalization, jumped 4.9% on Wednesday, while shares of PulteGroup $(PHM)$ powered up 4.5%, Lennar's stock $(LEN)$ leapt 4.2%, Toll Brothers rallied 5.2% and KB Home (KBH) climbed 6.5%.

Still, the home-building sector has a long way to go before it recovers from the effects of the Iran conflict. Even with Wednesday's rally, the ETF needs to rise another 12.8% to get to where it had closed before the conflict began.

Some analysts say home builders are facing another worry that may even trump high prices and mortgage rates.

Seaport Research's Kenneth Zener has downgraded all the home-builder stocks he covers, including turning bearish on five stocks. He believes recent data showing weak job growth and a lower break-even employment rate will have a longer-term negative impact on demand for new homes.

"A lower job rate represents a significant, and we think still un-priced, risk to the housing sector," Zener wrote in a Tuesday note to clients.

-Tomi Kilgore

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April 08, 2026 12:12 ET (16:12 GMT)

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