By Caitlin McCabe

Prediction-markets traders are becoming less confident that the transition to a new Fed chair will be smooth.

Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket are paring back bets that Kevin Warsh will be confirmed as head of the U.S. central bank by May 15, when Jerome Powell's leadership term ends. Traders on Kalshi now see a 38% chance of Warsh being confirmed before that date, down from well above 50% yesterday.

Traders haven't been feeling particularly optimistic about those odds for a while now. The latest bout of pessimism came after tensions surrounding the central bank heated up in recent days. On Tuesday, prosecutors escalated their investigation into Powell with an unannounced visit to the central bank's headquarters renovation. Then, yesterday, President Trump doubled down, saying he won't drop the Justice Department's probe and threatening to fire Powell if he doesn't resign from the Fed's board when his term as chair ends next month.

That presents a big problem for Warsh, whose confirmation hearing has been scheduled for April 21. Sen. Thom Tillis (R., NC.) has vowed to block any Fed nominee confirmation until the DOJ concludes its investigation into Powell.

All of which raises a big question: When the Fed chair's term expires without a confirmed successor, who gets to decide what happens next?

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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 16, 2026 09:48 ET (13:48 GMT)

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