The S&P 500 climbed 1.18% on Tuesday to close at 6,967.38, extending its recent rally as easing oil prices and renewed hopes of a U.S.-Iran deal lifted sentiment.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd appears split heading into Wednesday. The April 15 market shows 51% traders betting "Up," with early trading activity building on whether the S&P 500 will open higher or lower.
Why That Number Matters
The benchmark index is now less than 1% below its all-time high of 7,002.28, reached in January, underscoring how sharply markets have rebounded from the volatility triggered by the Iran war.
Investors have been encouraged by signs that diplomacy could still gain traction. President Donald Trump said earlier this week that Tehran wants to strike a deal, and a White House official told CNBC on Tuesday that a second round of talks is under discussion, though no formal meeting has been scheduled yet.
Oil prices also offered relief. WTI crude fell nearly 8% on Tuesday, while Brent dropped more than 4%, easing concerns that elevated energy costs could fuel broader inflation pressures.
At the same time, recent inflation data has helped sentiment. March’s producer price index came in softer-than-expected, reinforcing hopes that the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten policy further in response to the recent oil shock.
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The Bull Case
Tuesday marked the S&P 500’s ninth gain in 10 sessions, and its futures were little changed in early trading, suggesting markets may pause after the recent surge but remain supported by optimism around geopolitics and earnings.
Investors will also watch a fresh batch of corporate results before the bell, including Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), along with March's import and export price data.
Chip giant ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) raised its sales forecast for 2026 after it beat first-quarter revenue and profit expectations on Wednesday, thanks to sustained demand for AI chips. The Dutch firm’s Nasdaq-listed shares were up about 1% in premarket trading.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 6,910.20, above the prior close of 6,886.24, as upbeat sentiment around diplomacy and softer inflation data supported premarket trading. The April 14 Polymarket bet resolved "Up," with $79,468 in traded volume.
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