The latest Market Talks covering Energy markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0228 GMT - A shorter timeline to onshore inventory "angst" is likely amid the U.S. announcement of a blockade on Iranian oil exported via Strait of Hormuz, TD Securities' Ryan McKay says in a research report. The blockade will potentially eliminate around 2 million barrels per day of Iranian supply that had continued to flow during the U.S.-Iran conflict, the senior commodity strategist says. This supply loss would increase crude oil deficit to over 5 million barrels per day, after "taking into account all current offsets such as current refiner run cuts, bypass flows and SPR flows," McKay says. "This would shorten the timeline to record low onshore inventories to July rather than August," he adds. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 8.6% higher at $104.89 a barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 7.5% higher at $102.35 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

0209 GMT - South Korea's crude imports in April and May are projected to fall to 58% and 80% of normal monthly volumes, respectively, amid Middle East tensions, Citigroup's Jin-Wook Kim says. The economist expects the country's crude imports to reach 50 million barrels in April and 69 million barrels in May, compared with a monthly average of 85.7 million barrels in 2025. South Korea is seen increasing crude imports from the U.S. while reducing them from the Middle East. In the first 10 days of April, the U.S. accounted for 33% of South Korea's total crude imports, up from 19% in 1Q, while the Middle East's share fell to 39% from 69%. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

0020 GMT - S-Oil is set to post a 1Q earnings beat on tighter supply of crude and petroleum products amid Middle East tensions, Samsung Securities' Cho Hyun-ryul and Kim Won-young say. The Saudi Aramco-controlled South Korean refiner likely benefited from a surge in inventory value and wider refining margins for the January-March period, the analysts write in a note. They estimate S-Oil's 1Q operating profit at 1.18 trillion won, well above the FnGuide-compiled consensus forecast of 579.90 billion won. The company's oil-refining unit likely led quarterly earnings, with margins expected to have widened to $23.3 a barrel in 1Q from $17.1 in the prior quarter. (kwanwoo.jun@wsj.com)

2338 GMT - Oil climbs in early Asian trading hours, after U.S.-Iran peace talks held over the weekend failed, reviving risks of an escalating conflict between the two sides. Also, U.S. Central Command, which oversees U.S. forces in the Middle East, said in a statement that a blockade will begin Monday morning of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that could lead to oil-supply disruptions. The strait is a key waterway through which one-fifth of the world's oil is transported. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 9.0% higher at $105.29 a barrel; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 8.6% higher at $103.36 a barrel. (ronnie.harui@wsj.com)

2338 GMT - Morgan Stanley expects consensus EPS forecasts for Australian oil and natural gas producers to rise following their quarterly updates, due in coming weeks. Woodside Energy, Santos, Beach Energy and Karoon Energy are benefiting from uncertainty caused by the Iran conflict. Analyst Rob Koh cites an 'air pocket' in physical supply chains that supports these stocks. "Our commodity price mark-to-market sees 2026 EPS upgrades of 30-45% and we are 12-14% above Visible Alpha consensus heading into the quarterly reports," MS says. It also views a potential additional gas windfall tax burden as manageable. MS's top picks are Karoon and Santos. (david.winning@wsj.com; @dwinningWSJ)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 12, 2026 22:28 ET (02:28 GMT)

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