CG Oncology's (CGON) Pivot-006 study, currently evaluating Cretostimogene Grenadenorepvec in intermediate-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer, is a "complex" catalyst, RBC Capital Markets said in a Monday note.

The firm said complexity stems from limited historical data to anchor readout expectations, combined with a recent run-up in shares and a more challenging tactical setup ahead of the catalyst.

RBC expects data from the trial in early June and models Cretostimogene delivering a nearly 40% risk reduction, which it estimates would drive about 20% upside in the stock. The firm also highlights a greater than $1.2 billion US opportunity in intermediate-risk disease, adding to the drug's established profile in high-risk non-muscle invasive bladder cancer.

Other key catalysts include additional clinical readouts across its bladder cancer program and a potential BLA filing in H2, RBC said.

The firm has an outperform, speculative risk rating on the stock and raised its price target to $79 from $73.

Price: 68.66, Change: -0.02, Percent Change: -0.03