Colgate-Palmolive (CL) is expected to deliver an in-line Q1 and maintain its full-year guidance, though results may trend toward the lower end due to slower category growth and cost pressures, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Wednesday.

The US market remains challenging, with weak category demand and some recent toothpaste share losses, although management expects improvement in Q2 and Q3, supported by new products like Optic White and better shelf placement for Max White, while emerging markets are expected to lead growth, analysts said.

Inventory levels are tighter, but management didn't call it "true destocking" and expects shipments to run slightly below consumption, while projecting raw material inflation to ease in 2026 versus 2025, though high resin costs remain a risk, according to the note.

Colgate-Palmolive's wide guidance range at the start of the year to reflect a weak consumer environment and a range of outcomes "better insulates" the company, analysts said. "We ultimately believe Colgate can reiterate guidance ranges but see downward pressure within the ranges," they said, adding that the biggest risks are in the US, Africa and Eurasia, and parts of Asia Pacific, with rising costs also expected to pressure margins.

The company is expected to report Q1 financial results on Friday.

RBC Capital Markets has an outperform rating and a $102 price target on Colgate-Palmolive.

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