Market Talks covering the impact of U.S. Politics and White House policies on companies and markets. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1606 ET - Ford expects to receive a one-time, $1.3 billion tariff refund following the Supreme Court's February ruling striking down President Trump's global tariffs. The expected refund helped boost the automaker's 1Q profit to $2.55 billion, according to the company's earnings release. Still, Ford suggests that the timing of the refund is unclear, noting that its outlook assumes no benefit to adjusted free cash flow until 2027. The company also says it expects to pay around $1 billion in other tariffs this year. Rival automaker General Motors said Tuesday that it is expecting a $500 million tariff refund. (elias.schisgall@wsj.com)

1554 ET - President Trump picked Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed in part because Warsh persuaded the president he was aligned with Trump's demands for lower interest rates. Not all GOP lawmakers appear aligned on that point. One Republican senator on the banking committee--which oversees the Fed--told reporters Wednesday that the central bank may need to raise rates to snuff out inflation. "Inflation is very pernicious, and it's kind of like a tick," Sen. John Kennedy of Louisiana told reporters before voting to advance Warsh's nomination. "If you get a tick, the best way to handle it is to get that SOB off of you immediately." (matt.grossman@wsj.com; @mattgrossman)

1529 ET - When asked whether incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will stand up to political pressure from President Trump, Jerome Powell says, "I'll take him at his word." Trump has been calling for more rate cuts. Warsh faced questions about whether he would align with Trump's push for lower rates at his confirmation hearing. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

0442 ET - Sterling remains vulnerable even after lawmakers voted against referring U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer for an ethics enquiry over the appointment of Peter Mandelson, former U.K. ambassador to the U.S., Monex Europe analysts say. The Bank of England could on Thursday leave rates unchanged while emphasising that the current energy price shock is likely transitory, dampening "overpriced" rate rise expectations, they say in a note. Ahead of that, the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely hold rates in a decision at 1800 GMT and stress patience over future moves, potentially supporting the dollar. Meanwhile, geopolitical headlines and poor risk sentiment should keep sterling under pressure, the analysts say. Sterling falls 0.1% to $1.3501. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8667 pounds. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0433 ET - The challenge facing petroleum-producing nations isn't the United Arab Emirates' exit from OPEC but the broader tectonic shifts in the oil market, says Julius Baer's Norbert Rücker. U.S. shale oil, South American deepwater oil, and Chinese plug-in hybrid cars all illustrate the new setting for oil markets, one characterized by stagnation and greater competition, he adds. The U.A.E.'s OPEC exit aligns with the analyst's longer-term view of the oil market, in which ample supply and increased competition will anchor prices in the high $60s a barrel. The geopolitical consequences of the exit aren't yet clear. But it comes at a time of greater realignment of relationships in the region and "could advance solution-finding within the continuing conflict," he says. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0326 ET - Oil prices remain elevated after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump instructed aides to prepare for an extended blockade of Iran. In early European trading, Brent crude for June delivery rises 1% to $112.34 a barrel, while WTI futures for June are up 0.7% to $100.64 a barrel. "Stalled peace talks have raised the prospect of an indefinite disruption to oil supplies from the Persian Gulf," analysts at ANZ say. "The rebalancing of the market once the Strait of Hormuz is reopened will take years." Traders are now watching for updates on peace negotiations and this week's U.S. crude inventory report for signals on how quickly stockpiles are declining amid strong export demand. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0245 ET - The dollar rises as oil prices remain elevated on ongoing energy supply disruptions due to the Iran war. President Trump has instructed aides to prepare for an extended naval blockade of Iran in a bid to compel Tehran to concede to his demands for nuclear capitulation, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing U.S. officials. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in a decision at 1800 GMT. This is unlikely to have much impact on the dollar since it could be the last meeting under Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Trump's pick to replace Powell, Kevin Warsh, could take a different direction, Commerzbank's Volkmar Baur says in a note. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 98.735. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0122 ET - Markets will focus on how Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterizes the committee's consensus view on the recent inflation uptick and the future path of policy, says Madison Investments' Mike Sanders in a note, particularly with Powell's term as Chair nearing an end. "With inflation likely to remain elevated on higher oil prices, investors will want to gain as much insight into the committee's view of the balance of risks," the head of fixed income says. The labor market is "okay-not great" but cutting rates into high inflation would carry meaningful implications for both the yield curve and broader economy, while hiking rates in the near-term is not expected, he says. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

April 29, 2026 16:09 ET (20:09 GMT)

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