Unemployment at 4.3% or Lower Would Leave Fed on Hold -- Market Talk

Dow Jones

05/05

1156 ET - BofA predicts April's non-farm payrolls will grow by 80,000 and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%, with a risk of rounding down to 4.2%. Their forecast is higher than the consensus 55,000 reading that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect. "A 4.3% or lower u-rate would leave the Fed comfortably on hold in the near term amid rising inflation risks," they write. The bank added that uncertainty from the Iran war might weigh on hiring in the leisure and hospitality and trade and transport sectors. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 05, 2026 11:56 ET (15:56 GMT)

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Their forecast is higher than the consensus 55,000 reading that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect. \"A 4.3% or lower u-rate would leave the Fed comfortably on hold in the near term amid rising inflation risks,\" they write. The bank added that uncertainty from the Iran war might weigh on hiring in the leisure and hospitality and trade and transport sectors. (jessica.coacci@wsj.com) \n</p>\n<pre style=\"white-space: pre\">\n \n</pre>\n<p>\n  (END) Dow Jones Newswires\n</p>\n<p>\n  May 05, 2026 11:56 ET (15:56 GMT)\n</p>\n<p>\n  Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones &amp; Company, Inc.\n</p>\n</font>","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Unemployment at 4.3% or Lower Would Leave Fed on Hold -- Market Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUnemployment at 4.3% or Lower Would Leave Fed on Hold -- Market Talk\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/150f88aa4d182df19190059f4a365e99);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Dow Jones </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2026-05-05 23:56</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<font class=\"NormalMinus1\" face=\"Arial\">\n<p>\n     1156 ET - BofA predicts April's non-farm payrolls will grow by 80,000 and the unemployment rate will remain at 4.3%, with a risk of rounding down to 4.2%. Their forecast is higher than the consensus 55,000 reading that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect. \"A 4.3% or lower u-rate would leave the Fed comfortably on hold in the near term amid rising inflation risks,\" they write. The bank added that uncertainty from the Iran war might weigh on hiring in the leisure and hospitality and trade and transport sectors. 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Their forecast is higher than the consensus 55,000 reading that economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect. \"A 4.3% or lower u-rate would leave the Fed comfortably on hold in the near term amid rising inflation risks,\" they write. The bank added that uncertainty from the Iran war might weigh on hiring in the leisure and hospitality and trade and transport sectors. 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