The latest Market Talks covering Basic Materials. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires at 4:20 ET, 12:20 ET and 16:50 ET.

1544 ET - The U.S. lumber lobby says that President Trump's "highly effective" trade policy has reduced Canada's share of America's forest products market to 19% -- down from a 34% level in 2016. The US Lumber Coalition adds it wants the Trump administration to continue its hardball approach with Canada on lumber in the hopes of reducing the market share further. Canada PM Mark Carney and other officials have said that tariff relief on industrial sectors, like lumber, is crucial before Ottawa agrees to any changes to USMCA. The U.S. imposes a tariff on Canadian softwood lumber, used in the construction of house, of about 35%. (paul.vieira@wsj.com; @paulvieira)

0947 ET - Oil futures are rising for a third session as the lack of agreement between the U.S. and Iran and President Trump's warning about the precarious cease-fire raise concerns about renewed escalation in the Middle East conflict. "No news now likely means further escalations are coming," BOK Financial's Dennis Kissler says in a note. But with Trump heading to China to meet leader Xi Jinping, no real escalation is expected until he returns, Kissler adds. WTI is up 3.9% at $101.93 a barrel and Brent rises 3.7% to $108.11. (anthony.harrup@wsj.com)

0944 ET - Most-active silver futures are down 1.4%, this after a strong jump of over 6% seen Monday. Fears of a stalemate in the U.S.-Iran war are lifting the U.S. dollar, and crude oil futures are also trading higher, making precious metals less of a go-to for today. But in the longer-term, the narrative surrounding silver's industrial use in addition to its safe-haven status look to keep supporting prices, says Bas Kooijman of DHF Capital in a note. "Demand from electrification, renewable energy, electronics, AI infrastructure, and automotive production could help limit downside pressure," says Kooijman. Gold futures are down 0.6%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com)

0633 ET - Palm oil prices closed lower, having pared some earlier losses. Weakness in Dalian palm oil prices pressured the market in earlier trading, says Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Pakistan-based Manzoor Trading. However, upbeat data of exports of palm oil for the first ten days of the month, as well as lower production have supported palm oil prices and narrowed the losses, Hameed says. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery closed 33 ringgit higher at 4,483 ringgit a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

0421 ET - Southeast Asian planters' earnings could weaken sequentially and year over year due to lower seasonal output and softer crude palm oil prices, RHB IB analysts say in a note. However, earnings are expected to recover in 2Q on stronger output and higher crude palm oil prices, they add. Malaysia's stockpile levels are likely to remain broadly steady in the near term, as higher seasonal production is expected to be offset by stronger buying before Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate takes effect in July. RHB maintains a neutral rating on Southeast Asian plantation sector, while keeping a tactically positive trading stance. Its top picks are Johor Plantations, Sarawak Oil Palms, IOI Corp., London Sumatra Indonesia, SD Guthrie and First Resources. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

0330 ET - Gold prices could touch new highs this year, buoyed by macro uncertainty boosting diversification into gold and broadening private and official sector demand, says UBS Investment Bank's Joni Teves in commentary. Investor flows appear to be the main reason for gold's near-term moves, while official sector gold flows provide support, the precious metals strategist says. Near-term consolidation, particularly any pullbacks testing the $4,000 level, could be an opportunity to build positions in gold, she adds, given that the market remains underinvested for now. UBS Investment Bank's year-end gold target is $5,600 a troy ounce. Spot gold falls 0.8% to $4,697.05 an ounce. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2246 ET - Palm oil prices fall in Asian trading, weighed by lower soybean oil prices overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade, PhillipCapital says in a note. Weaker export data is also pressuring palm oil prices, it says. Malaysia's palm oil exports for May 1-10 are estimated to have fallen 11% on month, according to cargo surveyor AmSpec Agri Malaysia. PhillipCapital pegs resistance at 4,680 ringgit a ton and support at 4,434 ringgit a ton. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for July delivery is down 20 ringgit at 4,496 ringgit a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

2225 ET - Laopu Gold's bear at Macquarie Capital says the Chinese gold jewelry company's volume growth has likely hit its peak, taking the shine off the stock. Analysts Linda Huang and Sharon Yi are concerned that Chinese consumption power cannot match Laopu Gold's frequent price increases, weighing on volume growth. Demand for gold jewelry could also moderate if gold prices remain rangebound, they say. The company's store size continues to expand, they add, which could lead to severe operating deleverage if sales growth declines. The analysts project net profit to rise 140% in 2026, before falling 40% and 1% in 2027 and 2028, respectively. Macquarie Capital initiates coverage of Laopu Gold with an underperform rating and HK$453.00 target price. Shares rise 2.7% to HK$596.00. (megan.cheah@wsj.com)

2158 ET - Australian gold miners appear undervalued at spot gold prices, according to Macquarie. "A spot price scenario could imply circa 20% multiple valuation upside," all else being equal, the bank says in a note to clients. Macquarie reckons miners could earn roughly 65% Ebitda margins if spot gold prices remain steady. Newmont is its preferred gold major, and Capricorn Metals its preferred mid-cap stock. The precious metal has traded mostly between $4,500-$4,900 an ounce since a March selloff, says the bank. Spot gold recently traded at about $4,730 an ounce. Macquarie's own long-term gold forecast is roughly one-third lower than the spot price, it says. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2043 ET - Morgans reckons Dyno Nobel has done a good job on the transformation program to refocus on explosives, even if it did get "a poor price" for its fertilizer business. "As a pure-play global explosives business, DNL will become a much simpler story," the broker says. The company is making the most of industry tailwinds and could have upgraded its FY26 guidance had it not been for a stronger AUD, cost headwinds from the Middle East conflict and some "stranded costs" following the sale of Phosphate Hill, says Morgans. The broker views the stock as fairly valued. A buyback should continue to support the share price, it says. Morgans keeps a hold rating but raises its target to A$3.46 from A$3.33. Shares are down 0.6% at A$3.52, after gaining 6.6% Monday. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

2041 ET - Dyno Nobel could deliver more positive earnings surprises over the next year or two as the explosives maker capitalizes on strong demand and tight supply, Jefferies says in a note. The bank raises its price target on the stock by 5.4% to A$4.11, citing earnings-per-share upgrades and higher market multiples. It describes the company's 20% 1H Ebit beat in explosives versus consensus as impressive. The beat was because of broad strength across the core Asia Pacific and Americas businesses, it says. "From here, the focus is on FY28 Ebit target" of roughly A$600 million, and beyond, Jefferies says. It reiterates a buy rating on the stock. Shares are down 1.1% at A$3.50, giving up some of Monday's 6.6% jump. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 12, 2026 16:50 ET (20:50 GMT)

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