By Evie Liu

For American farmers and meat producers, the meeting between President Donald Trump and China's leader Xi Jinping could become a critical test of whether Beijing is willing to step back into the U.S. agricultural market in a meaningful way.

Agricultural trade will be one of the few areas where both sides have practical reasons to cooperate: China needs food security and diversified supplies, while the U.S. farm sector needs demand and stable income.

China is the world's largest soybean importer, relying heavily on imports to feed its massive hog and poultry industries. In recent years, Beijing has increasingly leaned on Brazil for soybean imports, especially during periods of heightened trade friction with Washington.

Logistic challenges and weather disruptions in Brazil could still push China to buy more soybeans from the U.S. But China's future purchase of U.S. soybeans are likely to remain below historical norms.

After a meeting between Trump and Xi in October 2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, starting in 2026 -- although China hasn't publicly confirmed the exact figure.

The Council on Foreign Relations said China will likely announce or reaffirm buying commitments for soybeans at the summit. Still, the proposed 25 million metric ton annual purchase would be below the five-year average from 2020 to 2024.

A renewed Chinese commitment to buy more American soybeans could help support not only U.S. farmers, but also grain traders and processors like Archer Daniels Midland and Bunge Global as well as farm equipment makers like Deere & Co that depend on healthy farm income.

The meat industry is watching closely as well. China is an important export market for U.S. beef and poultry, particularly for products such as chicken feet and dark meat that are less popular with U.S. consumers.

But access has recently become more uncertain after export registrations for hundreds of U.S. meat plants expired over the past year. The summit could address whether those licenses will be renewed, which could impact major meat producers and exporters such as Tyson Foods, Smithfield Foods, and Cargill.

Still, investors should avoid reading too much into early promises or headline announcements.

Trade summits often generate optimistic headlines without producing immediate purchasing commitments. Even if China signals willingness to buy more agricultural goods, details like timelines, volumes, pricing -- and whether it follows through on its promise -- still leaves room for uncertainty.

Analysts at the Brookings Institution said expectations for the summit should remain low, since the relationship remains fragile. Many Chinese analysts expect a U.S. snap back to a more competitive China policy, either after the midterms or after Trump steps down in 2029, wrote the Brookings Institution.

The U.S.-China tensions now extend beyond trade into semiconductors, electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, national security, and Taiwan. Agricultural purchases may ultimately function more as diplomatic leverage rather than a purely economic decision. Still, even modest progress could help improve sentiment in the sector and relevant stocks.

Write to evie.liu@barrons.com

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May 12, 2026 16:41 ET (20:41 GMT)

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