By Connor Hart

Dollar Tree is set to report its first-quarter results before the market opens Thursday. Here is what you need to know:

NET INCOME: The discount-store operator is expected to post a profit of $302.6 million, down from $343.4 million a year earlier, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

ADJUSTED EARNINGS: Stripping out one-time items, earnings are projected to come in at $1.53 a share. Dollar Tree notched adjusted earnings of $1.26 a share in the same quarter last year.

SALES: Sales are forecast to be $4.96 billion, an increase from the $4.64 billion it reported a year ago.

SAME-STORE SALES: Accounting for store openings and closings, sales are expected to climb 3.3%. Comparable sales rose 5.4% in the year-ago period.

Shares of Dollar Tree were recently trading at $93.21, having lost about 24% of their value over the past three months.

WHAT TO WATCH

--Dollar Tree's introduction of $3 and $5 items has eroded its value proposition, generating negative conversation and weighing on shares, UBS analysts said in a research note. "Now, the question is whether sentiment is washed out and can the company drive better performance," they added. The analysts expect Dollar Tree's 1Q comparable sales to fall short of expectations, and for the company to temper its outlook for the year. In that case, they continued, management needs to focus the conversation around how it plans to improve performance going forward.

--Truist analysts similarly have low expectations for Dollar Tree's same-store sales, citing internal card data that indicates sales surged around Easter but then quickly faded back to weaker-than-expected pre-holiday run rates. "However, on a multi-year stack basis, our data indicates that sales remained fairly steady throughout the quarter," they added.

--Recent channel checks show Dollar Tree is running temporary promotions, rolling prices back to $1 on a handful of retail and grocery items whose prices were lifted not too long ago. The quick pivot suggests the price increases haven't gone over well with consumers, Oppenheimer research analysts said. Management may have to explain its rationale behind the recent pricing actions, they add.

Write to Connor Hart at connor.hart@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 27, 2026 13:25 ET (17:25 GMT)

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