Qantas Airways' (ASX:QAN) market share trends in Australia overall remain stable at 49%, Jarden said in a Thursday note.

Overall, the Australian market is expected to see a snap back in scheduled seats growth through July, up 11% year-over-year, driven largely by a scheduled uplift in seats capacity from Asian discounters and Chinese carriers.

Deep capacity reductions for Middle East carriers, which fell 71% through April, but are set to recover over the course of the first half of fiscal year 2027, and restore capacity by June to pre-conflict levels. North American seat growth has remained resilient over the final few months of the second half of fiscal year 2026, based on current scheduled capacity.

Based on Visible Alpha consensus estimates, Qantas' international capacity growth is forecast at 2.1% in the first half of fiscal year 2027.

The investment firm retained its buy rating and its AU$11.25 per share price target on Qantas.