By Laura Sanicola

Energy stocks are taking a predictable beating after the U.S. and Iran agreed on Sunday to a framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but some areas are holding up better than others. Whether they really turn into bargains depends on where oil goes next, though there are some more stable and promising areas even if oil continues to slide.

Brent crude futures fell about 5% Monday to $83 after the preliminary U.S.-Iran agreement raised the prospect that hostilities between the two nations could end after more than 100 days of fighting.

Crude has taken equities with it. U.S. oil majors and refiners are down 4-5%; Liquefied natural gas exporters Venture Global and NextDecade fell even more sharply. The iShares Global Energy exchange-traded fund fell nearly 5% to $51.57, on track for its lowest close since December.

Crude prices could decline further if the agreement is signed as planned Friday and commercial shipping returns to the strait, through which roughly one fifth of the world's oil supply moved before the war. Crude and many of the conflict's biggest stock market winners still trade well above prewar levels, leaving room for more of their geopolitical premium to disappear.

The news has affected midstream stocks the least: The Alerian MLP ETF was down less than 1% Monday morning, far less than oil producers and refiners. That's likely because their business models allow them to continue generating cash as oil falls. Companies such as Enterprise Products Partners, Energy Transfer, and MPLX earn much of their money through fees for transporting, processing, and storing oil and gas, regardless of price regardless of the commodities' prices.

The longer-term forces supporting those businesses -- including rising U.S. LNG exports and growing natural gas demand from power plants -- also don't depend on the strait remaining closed.

Meanwhile, U.S. refiners such as Valero and Marathon Petroleum were among the biggest beneficiaries of the war because disruptions tightened supplies of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel even more severely than that of crude.

Reopening Hormuz should eventually bring more refined products back to market and reduce the exceptional margins refiners have been earning. But the selloff might indicate an expectation that it will happen faster that it realistically can.

Opening a shipping route won't immediately repair damaged refineries or replenish depleted fuel inventories. U.S. refineries are already running near their limits, according to government data. If crude prices fall faster than gasoline and diesel prices, refiners' input costs could decline while the value of the fuels they sell remains elevated.

Refiners' peak margins are probably behind them, but fuel supplies are likely to stay tight for several months after crude shipments resume through the strait.

Oilfield-service companies also look relatively insulated. The VanEck Oil Services ETF was down only about 2.5% Monday, less than most producers and refiners. Producers had not substantially increased their spending plans during the oil-price spike, meaning service companies have less of a war-driven boom to surrender.

LNG exporters are in a more precarious, though uneven, position. Cheniere Energy was down less than 3%, compared with declines of roughly 6% to 8% for Venture Global and NextDecade.

Iranian attacks over the last few months knocked out 17% of Qatar's export capacity for potentially as long as five years, and reopening the strait will not restore that production. Unlike crude oil, very little LNG has moved through or around the strait since the conflict began.

Cheniere already operates a large export system and sells most of its output under long-term contracts, making its cash flows less sensitive to sudden swings in international gas prices; shares around $234 are roughly flat from the start of the conflict. Venture Global benefited more from flexible and uncontracted cargoes during the shortage, making it likely to give back more gains as gas markets normalize.

NextDecade's Rio Grande LNG project is still under construction, leaving the stock more dependent on investors' expectations for future LNG demand, financing, and expansion. Recent weeks have seen international buyers seek long-term contracts from more varied regions, such as Canada, as they look to diversify from the U.S. and Qatar.

U.S. oil producers, on the other hand, may have further to fall before they become compelling. The industry held back ramping up supply during the price spike, though capital discipline cannot protect earnings if crude keeps falling.

Diamondback Energy looks relatively well positioned because its low-cost Permian operations can sustain production and dividends at much lower oil prices. Its shares were also holding up better than ConocoPhillips and some other producers Monday.

Still, Diamondback increased its spending plans as oil prices rose, leaving some room for expectations to reset if oil falls back toward prewar levels.

A full return to normal is hardly assured. Clearing suspected mines and convincing shipowners that the cease-fire will hold could take weeks or months.

The deal, set to be signed Friday, also postpones rather than resolves the conflict's central disputes. Negotiations over Iran's nuclear program are expected to continue for another 60 days, Israel was not a party to the agreement, and Hezbollah says its restraint depends on Israel observing the cease-fire in Lebanon.

Markets may remove a war premium quickly, but reopening the Strait of Hormuz safely, and keeping it open, will be much harder.

Write to Laura Sanicola at laura.sanicola@barrons.com

This content was created by Barron's, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. Barron's is published independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

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June 15, 2026 13:37 ET (17:37 GMT)

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