By Nicole Nguyen and Rolfe Winkler

The global memory-chip shortage is coming for the iPhone.

Apple isn't immune to soaring chip prices, Chief Executive Tim Cook told The Wall Street Journal. When asked which devices would be getting price increases and when, Cook responded, "We're still working through that."

We're likely to find out more this September, when the next iPhone and other devices are expected to arrive.

So for now, we decided to make an educated guess at how much more Apple hardware will cost, using the anticipated but as yet unannounced iPhone 18 Pro. Our analysis -- based on the current markup of memory and storage chips and projections from research firm TechInsights -- shows why the price of the base model could rise by $200 or more.

Chip math

AI demand has created an unprecedented run on two types of memory chips, DRAM (aka dynamic random accessory memory) and NAND flash storage. Only a few companies, including Samsung Electronics and Micron Technology, supply the market.

Data centers used to train and run large language models are willing to pay a premium for these chips, so manufacturers are shifting production toward enterprise-scale components and away from the consumer business. That's a problem for lots of electronics we might be shopping for, including new iPhones.

The iPhone 17 Pro contains 12 gigabytes of DRAM and flash storage starting at 256 gigabytes. Prices for these components are projected to quadruple by this fall, compared with last year, according to Mike Howard, director of memory markets at TechInsights.

He estimates that Apple paid about $39 for the 12GB of DRAM in the 17 Pro, but in the 18 Pro, the cost could reach $145. For the much cheaper flash storage, Howard says Apple paid around $13 for 256GB, and that price could rise to $51.

Wayne Lam, service director of wireless components at TechInsights, estimates that, besides DRAM and flash storage, Apple's cost for iPhone 17 Pro parts and manufacturing is roughly $530. So when you add in the DRAM and flash storage, a base iPhone 17 Pro costs the company about $582, while its estimated cost for a starting iPhone 18 Pro will jump 25% to $726.

While Apple doesn't report the gross profit margins on individual products, the TechInsights research suggests the margin on the $1,099 iPhone 17 Pro was a tidy 47%. To maintain that profit margin for the iPhone 18 Pro, based on estimated costs, the company would have to charge $1,371. Because the company likes standardized pricing, the starting price tag would more likely be $1,299, yielding a 44% gross profit.

And this calculation doesn't account for a potential new camera system that will also cost Apple about 50% more than previous models, according to supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.

In that case, following the same math, Apple could set the starting price of the iPhone 18 Pro at $1,399 -- or higher.

Write to Nicole Nguyen at nicole.nguyen@wsj.com and Rolfe Winkler at Rolfe.Winkler@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 17, 2026 17:01 ET (21:01 GMT)

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