MW How 'Toy Story 5' could help power a major comeback year for Hollywood

By Lukas I. Alpert

A string of surprise hits has this year's box office already up 15% from last year, but studios and theater owners are looking to Pixar's signature franchise to deliver a big boost

The movie industry is counting on "Toy Story 5" to keep a recent string of box-office hits going.

To infinity and beyond.

That's where the movie industry is hoping the box office for "Toy Story 5" will go in the film's opening weekend - helping to keep up the momentum in what is looking to be a major comeback year for Hollywood.

Surprise hits like horror films "Obsession" and "Backrooms" have pushed this year's cumulative box office up 15% compared to the same point last year, analysts note, putting Hollywood on pace for its best year since before the pandemic.

A strong showing by Pixar's latest "Toy Story" sequel would help the cause, with analysts forecasting a domestic opening weekend box office of $150 million to $175 million.

"The year has been overperforming so far, and to have a big franchise film coming like this is just the cherry on top," said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory.

If the current pace holds, Hollywood could see its annual box office come in nearly $1 billion above the postpandemic high of $8.9 billion in 2023, albeit still some distance behind the all-time high of $11.9 billion in 2018.

While this is good news for film studios, it's perhaps even better news for theater owners, which have struggled in recent years. Theaters have been plagued by steep declines in ticket sales following the pandemic, as well as changing audience habits in a world increasingly focused on streaming.

Walt Disney $(DIS)$, which owns Pixar, is expected to put the film in over 4,000 theaters nationwide, experts say. "Toy Story" was the first feature release made by Pixar back in 1995, and has been a perennial success story for Disney ever since.

The franchise's previous installment, "Toy Story 4," brought in almost $1.1 billion in global box office in 2019.

The much-anticipated release of "Toy Story 5" comes after Hollywood has seen an impressive run of box-office hits. Those have included "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie," which has led the way this year with $429 million in domestic box office and over $1 billion worldwide, and the Michael Jackson biopic "Michael," which has brought in $364 million in the U.S. and $935 million globally.

"Unlike prior periods where box-office performance was driven by a small number of tentpole releases, the current quarter appears to be benefiting from multiple films working simultaneously across genres and demographics," analyst Mike Hickey of Benchmark Equity Research wrote in a note to clients.

"We view this as a healthier and more sustainable recovery dynamic, supporting attendance consistency," he added. "At the same time, one of the quarter's largest catalysts, 'Toy Story 5,' remains ahead."

For that reason, Hickey said he was raising his target price on shares of Cinemark Holdings $(CNK)$, the third-largest theater owner in the U.S., to $37 from $35. He said the company was well positioned to benefit from current trends given its focus on family-oriented movies and horror films, as well as its strong footprint in suburban areas.

"We believe the theatrical ecosystem currently benefits from more tailwinds than headwinds, including stronger content supply, improving cadence, increasing studio support, expanding windows and healthy consumer engagement," he wrote.

-Lukas I. Alpert

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June 18, 2026 14:09 ET (18:09 GMT)

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