The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0736 GMT - The 10-year Japanese government bond yield is expected to rise above 2.7% over the next three months, driven by fears that planned consumption-tax cuts would deteriorate the nation's fiscal health even further, says NLI Research Institute economist Tsuyoshi Ueno. "In addition, concerns over the possibility that the Bank of Japan will fall behind the curve [in addressing inflation] could also lead to a rise in bond yields," Ueno says. The 10-year JGB yield was last up 2.5 bps at 2.670%. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0732 GMT - Despite the recent memorandum of understanding between Iran and the U.S., the effects of the Middle East war continue to pose a risk to the United Arab Emirates' economic outlook, S&P Global Ratings says in a note. That said, the anticipated opening of additional hydrocarbon export routes, a likely increase in oil production from 2027, and the UAE government's large fiscal and external buffers in the form of sovereign wealth fund assets and foreign exchange reserves could all support a period of recovery, the ratings firm says. Although not S&P Global Ratings' base case, a resumption of the war could lead to uneven recovery across sectors and could have a severe credit impact on the UAE. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0729 GMT - Yields on U.K. government bonds fall as U.S.-Iran talks raise the prospects of an end to the oil supply shock. Investors are optimistic that energy prices will continue to fall, easing concerns about inflationary pressures. Focus is also on U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer as media reports say that he could resign on Monday, paving the way for a leadership change. U.K. fiscal uncertainty under a new leader could keep the gilt market volatile. Ten-year gilt yields fall 1 basis point to last trade at 4.830%, Tradeweb data show. (miriam.mukuru@wsj.com)

0720 GMT - The yen is likely to remain under selling pressure against the dollar, spurred by speculation over U.S. rate increases and concerns about Japan's fiscal conditions amid discussions about consumption tax cuts, says NLI Research Institute economist Tsuyoshi Ueno. "The government, growing increasingly vigilant against rising prices, is unlikely to stand by and tolerate further yen depreciation into the mid-160 range," he says. As the government is expected to intervene to stop such moves, the yen is likely to remain close to where it currently stands three months from now, he adds. The dollar was last trading at 161.69 yen. (megumi.fujikawa@wsj.com)

0716 GMT - Bitcoin edges slightly higher but continues to trade in a narrow range amid uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. Mediators said Iran and the U.S. agreed to the creation of a mechanism to ensure the termination of military operations in Lebanon, WSJ reports. U.S. Vice President JD Vance also struck an upbeat tone after his initial round of talks with Iran on Sunday, saying they made great progress. However, speaking to Fox News, President Trump threatened fresh military action if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. "What the overall positive weekend has perhaps taught us is that the path to a durable resolution remains fragile," Deutsche Bank analysts say in a note. Bitcoin rises 0.3% to $63,940, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0713 GMT - Japan's Nikkei Stock Average rose 1.5% to close at a record 72353.96, as enthusiasm over artificial-intelligence demand continues to spread to adjacent industries. Metals and industrial robot makers led gains. JX Advanced Metals surged 12% and Fanuc advanced 6.5%. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield rose 2.5 basis points to 2.670%, due partly to inflation fears stemming from the Middle East conflict. The dollar is at 161.68 yen, compared with Y161.30 late Friday Eastern time. Investors are focusing on the U.S.-Iran peace talks and any moves by Japanese authorities to prevent the yen from depreciating further. (kosaku.narioka@wsj.com; @kosakunarioka)

0702 GMT - Sterling falls following media reports that U.K. Prime Minister is expected to announce his resignation on Monday. Starmer has faced growing pressure to resign after his Labour Party's poor performance in local elections in May. Andy Burnham is the favorite to replace Starmer after securing a seat in parliament following his victory in a special election last week. What is relevant for sterling is how smoothly a potential leadership change would proceed and what ideas Burnham has for his term in office, Commerzbank's Michael Pfister says in a note. Sterling falls 0.2% to $1.3200. The euro rises 0.1% to 0.8673 pounds after reaching a one-month high of 0.8687 overnight, LSEG data show. (renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0657 GMT - Eurozone government bond yields fall in opening trade as oil prices decline after Iran and the U.S. agreed to the creation of a mechanism to ensure the termination of military operations in Lebanon. Eurozone yields move in the opposite direction to U.S. Treasury yields, which rise on increasing prospects of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates later this year. Both eurozone data and sovereign-bond issuance calendars are empty on Monday. The 10-year German Bund yield falls 2 basis points to 2.962%, according to Tradeweb. (emese.bartha@wsj.com)

0646 GMT - Gold prices fall as investors weigh the outlook for U.S.-Iran peace negotiations and U.S. monetary policy. In early trading, New York futures are down 0.7% to $4,218.20 a troy ounce. "For now, the yellow metal remains stuck in technical limbo," analysts at Saxo Bank say. Progress in U.S.-Iran negotiations, including efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz despite diplomatic challenges over Lebanon, eased concerns over energy supply disruptions and reduced fears of a broader inflation shock. However, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh reinforced expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain elevated for longer, reducing the appeal of nonyielding assets. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index is up 0.1% to 100.93, making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for overseas buyers. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

0646 GMT - The dollar rises as traders bet that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates as soon as September. The Fed's meeting last week signalled the potential for raising rates by year-end, prompting markets to bring forward tightening expectations. The dollar's gains come even as oil prices fall after mediators said the U.S. and Iran made progress in talks. The dollar hasn't suffered from lower oil prices due to U.S. rate-rise bets, Commerzbank's Thu Lan Nguyen says in a note. The dollar could still benefit if oil prices rise again as this would fuel inflation and boost rate expectations, she says. The DXY dollar index rises 0.1% to 100.905, having reached a one-year high of 101.127 Friday.(renae.dyer@wsj.com)

0627 GMT - China's economy may see be less affected by high energy prices in coming quarters, according to Goldman Sachs in a research note. Notable declines in the production of refined oil and chemicals, as well as the sharp drop in domestic retail fuel sales, are clear signs that the Iran war and higher oil prices weighed on Chinese economic activity, GS says. That said,GS lowers its oil price projections for Brent in 4Q from $90 per barrel to $80 per barrel as Iran reopens the Strait of Hormuz. GS expects the drag from elevated energy prices to gradually dissipate in coming quarters. (tracy.qu@wsj.com)

0621 GMT - Goldman Sachs revises its second-quarter GDP growth forecast for China to 3.5%, down from 4.0%, following weak economic data in April and May that disappointed outside of exports and industrial production. The investment bank estimates that export growth will contribute roughly 3 percentage points to China's year-over-year GDP growth, while domestic demand lags behind at a sluggish pace. However, Goldman expects third-quarter economic growth to rebound to 5.0%, and keeps its full-year GDP forecast unchanged at 4.7%. (singaporeeditors@dowjones.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

June 22, 2026 03:36 ET (07:36 GMT)

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