Zurich, 24 June 2026 – 21shares, a global leader in cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs), today published its comprehensive mid-year cryptocurrency research report: State of Crypto 2026: Mid-Year Update. The comprehensive report revisits ten core industry forecasts made in December, providing an impartial, data-driven audit of what has held up, what has faced delays, and how the market architecture has evolved.

Six months in, the mid-year assessment reveals a highly nuanced financial landscape where long-term structural trends remain intact, even as price and liquidity dependent targets have adjusted to cyclical realities. Here are some of the topics covered in the report:

Is the traditional four-year Bitcoin market cycle broken in 2026?

"Heading into the year, it had almost become consensus that Bitcoin's four-year cycle was finished, but the price action still looks familiar," said Eliezer Ndinga, Head of Research at 21shares. "Following the peak at $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin corrected sharply, tracking closely with historical post-halving rhythms. However, our on-chain data shows structural maturity: the current drawdown is far milder than the 80%+ corrections of previous cycles, and Bitcoin has continuously stayed above its aggregate investor cost basis of $54,000. Fundamental metrics point to a base-case recovery toward $100,000 by year-end, rather than an unbacked breakout."

What is driving global crypto ETP liquidity and asset flows?

"From an asset allocation standpoint, what stands out at this mid-year mark is the profound resilience of institutional capital," noted Adrian Fritz, Chief Investment Strategist at 21shares. "While total global crypto ETP AUM settled at $140 billion – down 15% year-to-date due to price shifts – net underlying BTC holdings sit at 1.25 million coins, remaining within 8% of all-time highs. Allocators are holding through volatility. Furthermore, the rapid scaling of emerging high-quality projects, such as the rollout of the Hyperliquid ETFs in the US, which captured $150 million in their opening month, demonstrates that institutional demand is targeting platforms displaying clear, on-chain operational revenue."

How rapidly is decentralised prediction market volume scaling?

Driven by global platform integrations across Google and X, alongside resolved regulatory hurdles, decentralised prediction markets are expanding ahead of schedule. The sector recorded $57.5 billion through the end of May, surpassing half its original full-year projection. Backed by seasonal event catalysts in the back half of 2026, including the FIFA World Cup and the US midterm congressional elections, annual transaction volumes are actively pacing to challenge the $200 billion mark.

Why are Ethereum Layer-2 scaling solutions consolidating?

The 21shares prediction that under-differentiated Layer-2 (L2) rollups would fail to survive 2026 has been heavily realised. On-chain metrics verify that active user metrics and liquidity have aggressively centralized, with Base, Arbitrum, and Optimism capturing a commanding 83% of all L2 DeFi Total Value Locked (TVL). This structural shakeout matches the shift noted by Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, leaving isolated scaling chains with limited distribution models to face structural attrition or app-chain migrations.

What is the current scale of Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenisation?

The velocity of tokenised assets hinges heavily on network architecture parameters. Public blockchain distribution accounts for $31 billion, anchored by $15 billion in tokenised US Treasuries. However, when evaluating assets mirrored on permissioned institutional networks like Canton, where they serve as 24/7 collateral, the figure surges to approximately $350 billion. The incoming operational integration of the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) tokenising DTC-custodied US Treasuries this July and October marks the critical bridge converting institutional asset representation into distributed reality.

The full State of Crypto 2026: Mid-Year Update report, featuring updated charts, performance scores, and macro outlooks for the remainder of the year, is available for download on the 21shares website. 

Read the complete report here.

Notes to editors

About 21shares

21shares is a global leader in cryptocurrency exchange-traded products (ETPs) and issues the world's largest suite of physically-backed crypto ETPs, with a portfolio of over 60 products globally. Founded in 2018, the company designs transparent financial market infrastructure to bridge the gap between traditional finance (TradFi) and decentralised digital assets. 21shares pioneered the industry by listing the world’s first physically-backed crypto ETP and has built a mature, multi-year track record of scaling institutional-grade crypto ETPs across major global securities exchanges. Backed by an analytical research team, proprietary technology, and institutional capital markets expertise, 21shares delivers cost-efficient spot crypto and index-based investment solutions.

21shares operates as an independent subsidiary under FalconX, the leading institutional digital asset prime brokerage. By strategically leveraging the global scale, liquidity networks, and institutional reach of the FalconX group, 21shares accelerates its mission to deliver regulated digital asset access worldwide. For research insights and product listings, visit www.21shares.com.

Contact: audrey.belloff@21shares.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared and issued by 21Shares AG for publication globally. All information used in the publication of this report has been compiled from publicly available sources that are believed to be reliable, however we do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report. Crypto asset trading involves a high degree of risk. The crypto asset market is new to many and unproven and may have the potential to not grow as expected.

Currently, there is relatively small use of crypto assets in the retail and commercial marketplace in comparison to relatively large use by speculators, thus contributing to price volatility that could adversely affect an investment in crypto assets. In order to participate in the trading of crypto assets, you should be capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the investment and be able to bear the economic risk of losing your entire investment.

Nothing in this email does or should be considered as an offer by 21Shares AG and/or its affiliates to sell or solicitation by 21Shares AG or its parent of any offer to buy bitcoin or other crypto assets or derivatives. This report is provided for information and research purposes only and should not be construed or presented as an offer or solicitation for any investment. The information provided does not constitute a prospectus or any offering and does not contain or constitute an offer to sell or solicit an offer to invest in any jurisdiction.

Readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements as a result of various factors. The information contained herein may not be considered as economic, legal, tax, or other advice and users are cautioned against basing investment decisions or other decisions solely on the content hereof.

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