Shares of Casey's General Stores have fallen after the convenience store operator laid out its three-year strategic plan at its investor day Wednesday. Yet they've still been major winners so far this year, and that shouldn't change.

The company is targeting a compound annual growth rate between 8% and 10% for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (Ebitda) in the period from fiscal 2027 through fiscal 2029, while adding 400 new locations through a combination of building new stores and making small acquisitions.

Casey's shares traded down following the investors day, and had slipped more than 1% in late trading Thursday.

Barron's spoke with Chief Executive Darren Rebelez on Thursday, and he says that, with Casey's arguably coming off "the best three-year period in the company's history last year, the plan is clearly working," and there are plenty of levers for the company to pull as it looks to continue that growth.

Publicly traded convenience stores are scarce, and Casey's has built an enviable customer base in the Midwest, where it's been successfully expanding in recent years. "We really are in a category of one," he says. "We sit at the intersection of convenience and quick-service restaurants." The company's three main lines of business -- fuel, prepared foods, and grocery and general merchandise -- give it a lot of flexibility to win in different markets.

Its prepared-food business has been the star of the show, with the recent addition of wings further widening Casey's competitive moat. "We are really in a better position now than we've ever been in from a culinary innovation and pipeline perspective," Rebelez says.

UBS analyst Michael Lasser believes the stock's drop after the announcement "was more due to industry news flow and note that its performance was pretty consistent with U.S. competitors."

Likewise, investors might have been hoping for Ebitda guidance higher than 8% to 10%, given that Casey's had 16% Ebitda growth in the previous three-year plan.

Even if the company doesn't manage that blistering pace going forward, "management's guide leaves plenty of room for upside," notes William Blair analyst Phillip Bee, "where we expect annual Ebitda growth could land closer to the 12% to 18% range."

Despite the past few days' decline, Casey's stock is up some 40% since Barron's recommended it in December, and the new strategic plan shows that the company is still winning.

"Casey's still has multiple controllable levers to compound earnings, including prepared food innovation, wings, rewards/digital engagement, integration [of the Cefco convenience stores it acquired], unit growth and continued operating efficiency," noted Stephens analyst Pooran Sharma, who thinks the shares should trade to $975.

Rebelez points to the fact that many of the things fueling Casey's success are "well within our control." Given management's capable hands, that bodes well for the future.

Write to Teresa Rivas at teresa.rivas@barrons.com

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June 25, 2026 15:36 ET (19:36 GMT)

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