Progressive's (PGR) underwriting margins are normalizing more quickly than consensus amid a competitive pricing environment, mid-single-digit severity and potential normalization of claims frequency, UBS said in a note emailed Tuesday.

UBS said that it continues to expect pressure on loss ratios stemming from increasing claims frequency as the pricing cycle returns to usual, noting that sharper pricing drives policyholders to become more willing to file claims.

Underwriting margins benefit from the usual claims activity, driven by moderate pricing, according to the note.

With app downloads pointing to moderating growth in policies in force, or PIF, for June and Q2, UBS said it expects Agency PIF growth of 7.4% with Direct at 10.6% in Q2 compared with 16.3% and 21.2%, respectively, for the same period last year.

UBS raised its price target to $230 from $220 and maintained its neutral rating.

Price: 220.34, Change: +0.48, Percent Change: +0.22