NYMEX Overview: Crude Lower to Start Q3 as Middle East Risk Premium Fades

Dow Jones
07/02

Crude contracts fell slightly around midday Wednesday, as Iran and U.S. continued to pursue a peace agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Persian Gulf oil flows through the key global oil supply chokepoint showing signs of recovery.

At 12:10 p.m. ET, August NYMEX West Texas Intermediate crude contracts were down around $1.25 to $68.30/bbl, and September WTI was about $1.10 lower to $68.20/bbl.

London-based September ICE Brent crude futures were down about $1.60 to $71.35/bbl and October Brent was $1.25 lower to $71.75/bbl.

On Tuesday, oil prices closed out the second quarter with their biggest quarterly loss since early 2020, after a sharp price surge earlier this year due to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the price differential between WTI and Brent fell to nearly $3/bbl on Wednesday, a sharp contrast to almost $15/bbl in mid-March, reflecting the significant drop in risk premium in Brent barrels due to the Middle East conflicts.

The newly minted August NYMEX RBOB was up 3.55cts to around $2.9305/gal and September RBOB was 2.60cts higher to $2.7570/gal. August NYMEX ULSD was 1.90ct lower to $3.21050/gal and September ULSD was down 0.70cts to $3.1530/gal.

The oil market continued to monitor a second day of U.S.-Iran peace talks in Qatar on Wednesday, without major news headlines out of the meeting as of midday.

Earlier, the latest Energy Information Administration data showed U.S. crude oil and gasoline stocks were down 3.8 million bbl and 2.3 million bbl, respectively. Meanwhile, distillate inventory was up 2.5 million bbl.

Darren Dohme, principal of petroleum consultant The Fuel Hedge, said in a Wednesday note that the WTI 3-2-1 crack spread recently rose to a high around the mid-$50s, compared to its long-term average of around $25/bbl. A crack spread is a simple indicator of a refinery's profit margin.

While crude oil prices have fallen due to the expected increase in Mideast oil exports, refined product supply remains tight due to a bottleneck between upstream and downstream, resulting in the high crack spread, said Dohme.

On Tuesday, EIA's final estimates showed U.S. total crude oil production rose to 13.934 million b/d in April, a record since the agency began tracking the data in January 1920. U.S. crude oil exports also surged to an all-time high in April.

Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs said oil flows through the strait have been ramping up swiftly prior to the brief military exchanges between U.S. and Iran, pushing Persian Gulf flows to nearly 80% of pre-war levels.

 

This content was created by Oil Price Information Service, which is operated by Dow Jones & Co. OPIS is run independently from Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal.

 

Reporting by Frank Tang, ftang@opisnet.com; Editing by Cory Wilchek, cwilchek@opisnet.com

(c) 2026 Oil Price Information Service, LLC. All rights reserved.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

July 01, 2026 12:33 ET (16:33 GMT)

Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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